EPL 01-02 March 2016
EPL 01-02 March 2016¶
A midweek set of fixtures in the English Premier League to wrap our heads around. League leaders Leicester City only managed a draw at home to West Bromich Albion, but that was enough to see them extend their lead on their three closest challengers, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City, all of whom lost. Manchester United now climb to equal points with their Manchester rivals, albeit having played a game extra.
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '01/03/2016', '02/03/2016')))
Aston Villa 1-3 Everton¶
As I wrote last week, enough has been said about Aston Villa's terrible season. They certainly have been unfortunate to a degree, but it now seems clear that their place in the relegation zone, if not quite dead-last, is pretty justified. That said, again this week Villa managed to out-shoot their opponents, although there is likely some score-effects going on here, Everton were ahead from the 5th minute and played an hour of football with at least a two goal cushion.
So Everton are a pretty difficult team to nail down. Their team rating has them placed 7th for the entire season one above Chelsea and just one behind league leaders Leicester. Similarly they are placed 1st for PDO one place ahead of the league leaders. So it is very interesting that Leicester seem to have turned their luck into a league leading points tally, whilst Everton haven't seemed to manage that and have a league position that, if anything undervalues them.
Note as well that the middle of the table is pretty tight. In the team-ratings table we have just 5th to 9th is separated by just 0.02, and in the league table just 4 points separates 11th placed Everton from 7th placed Stoke. However, a difficulty in Everton realising something like 7th place, is the teams above them, Liverpool, Southampton and Chelsea all project upwards, so Everton may well have to look to catch Stoke and West Ham, just to finish 9th.
Bournemouth 2-0 Southampton¶
This certainly did Bournemouth some good, and they somewhat deserved it. I think it's time to quite confidently predict Bournemouth to be in the premier league next season, they are eight points above the relegation zone, playing well enough, and the points are moving in the right direction.
Leicester City 2-2 West Brom¶
A lot has been said about Leicester's supposed inability to break down teams that are prepared to sit back and defend. Whatever the scoreline, two goals against West Brom is at least something of an answer to this. Especially given that West Brom took the lead only to find themselves behind at the half-time interval. Not only this, but Leicester in total had 22 shots against West Brom's 11. This looks like the sort of performance of a top club, one that could win the title.
Norwich City 1-2 Chelsea¶
So Chelsea's run continues, that is now unbeaten in 12 games. Norwich also extend their unwanted run of 8 games without a win.
league_analysis.display_current_runs(epl)
Sunderland 2-2 Crystal Palace¶
But worse than Norwich's run is Crystal Palace's run without a win. Sunderland again showing signs of life, if not quite the ability to survive the drop. Here are the stats for the last ten games, note that Sunderland are up into 13th for team rating and there is a fairly significant gap between themselves and fellow strugglers Swansea in 15th.
Crystal Palace's woes are at least somewhat brought upon themselves given that they are ranked 19th for team rating in the last ten games. Palace and Villa both have their poor performances exacerbated by a poor PDO. However, it is important to note that PDO is affected by game state, just as the league leaders will generally have a good PDO, because they are a good team and hence will take the lead often, so too will the bottom placed teams necessarily have a poor PDO, being a poor team means they are more likely to concede early on.
It is the subject of ongoing research exactly how much we can learn from the PDO. Top teams will have a good PDO. How much of that is because their good PDO has pushed them higher up the table, and how much of it is because they are already a good team and hence more likely to often take the lead.
However you look at it, Crystal Palace are being dragged into a relegation battle from a position that 12 games ago made relegation inconceviable. It is now just unlikely.
stats = league_analysis.last_x_game_stats(epl, 10)
display(HTML(league_analysis.header_stat_tables(epl, stats=stats)))
Arsenal 1-2 Swansea¶
What a win for Swansea. That has created a bit of gap at the bottom of the table, with Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich all on 24 points, now 6 adrift of Swansea. Arsenal really didn't need that. A win here would have placed them on 54 points equal with Tottenham, right before the two play-off each other this weekend, at White Hart Lane. In this particular game 18 shots is pretty decent, but only 4 on target. That is a bit worrying for Arsenal fans. To lose this game with Swansea scoring with both their shots on target was perhaps a bit unfortunate, but a draw would have been perfectly reasonable.
Leicester meanwhile continue a rather gentler run of Watford, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace, this could be very exciting, it is entirely conceivable that the doubters are correct and, despite the 22(11) shots against West Brom, Leicester struggle to break down teams willing to defend, in which case they may take only, say 3 points from those fixtures. But it is also pretty conceivable that Leicester take all nine of those points.
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Leicester', 'Tottenham', 'Arsenal', 'Man City', 'Man United' ])
Liverpool 3-0 Manchester City¶
Okay so 3-0 was probably, like their win at the Etihad, a bit flattering, but Liverpool again deserved this win. Generally Liverpool are clearly a top four team this season and have been on the end of a rather unflattering PDO which is still 18th for the entire season. Recently though they have a positive PDO, which has saw them shoot up the league to 8th, from results worthy of 6th place in the last ten games. Liverpool may not have had a successful season, but they have a team rating of 3rd, and more recently 2nd. Expect better from Liverpool next season.
Are Manchester City gone as title contenders? Well, probably not. Still just 10 points off the lead, which despite how long Leicester have kept up their form is still regarded with some suspicion. Tottenham then are just 7 points ahead, and City have a game in hand, which, if won would see them just 4 points behind. Given that Tottenham have Arsenal at the weekend, that could be further reduced. I guess there will be clamour for Manchester City to be written off, but imagine this scenario; Arsenal beat Tottenham, City beat Villa and (whenever it is rearranged for) Newcastle. Watford beat Leicester City, this would leave the league at Leicester 57, Tottenham 54, Arsenal 54, Manchester City 53. Now consider how unlikely that scenario is? Even a draw between Tottenham and Arsenal would mean Leicester 57, Tottenham 55, City 53, Arsenal 52. Not really so terrible?
Manchester United 1-0 Watford¶
Good win for Manchester United, good effort from Watford. Could Manchester United win the title? Well I did include them in the fixture lists above. Would need to win more or less every game from here on in. Not entirely impossible. Even without this, as long as they win against all three of Manchester City, Tottenham, and Leicester, thus denying them points, it seems possible to me. If unlikely.
Watford, are almost certainly safe from the drop. But it will worry them that they have 8 points from the last 10 games, the same as Aston Villa.
Stoke City 1-0 Newcastle¶
I can see where Steve Maclaren thinks Newcastle were unfortunate. They arguably deserved a point here. Despite feeling that Sunderland are on a bit of an uptick, I have a feeling Newcastle are the more likely to avoid relegation.
West Ham 1-0 Tottenham¶
West Ham and Bournemouth have a nack for beating the best teams in the league. West Ham are joint with Chelsea in 2nd place for the last ten games. Think about this, I just half-heartedly argued that Manchester United were still in with a slim chance of winning the title, West Ham are but one point further back. That's pretty incredible. They still have a pretty middling team rating, 10th in the league. This is pretty good for West Ham, and they can be (already) pleased with a good season, but I doubt they are quite as good as their current 6th place. I for one have been guilty of suggesting West Ham would regress, so far it hasn't happened.
Tottenham, still favourites in my opinion.
Thanks for reading.
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