EPL 05-06 March 2016
EPL 05-06th March 2016¶
Covering the matches played on weekend of the 5th and 6th of March, which saw a number of red cards, Leicester extend their lead at the top, whilst West Ham put in a claim for 5th position ahead of Manchester United.
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '05/03/2016', '06/03/2016')))
Chelsea 1-1 Stoke¶
Well, since we're starting with Chelsea let's look at the currrent runs:
league_analysis.display_current_runs(epl)
This makes sense for Chelsea because they are now on an unbeaten run stretching for 13 games, 12 under Gus Hiddink. With that Chelsea retain their status in the top half of the league, a win would have seen them on equal points with their visitors in 8th. The draw seemed like a pretty fair result, Chelsea had a few more shots and a couple more shots on target but couldn't really be said to have dominated. Stoke looking pretty decent in 8th, but they are probably more looking over the shoulders at Southampton and Chelsea than ahead to Liverpool and Manchester United. Of those five teams, Stoke have by far the worst team rating.
Everton 2-3 West Ham¶
Somewhat crazy game, with another red card, a missed penalty, Everton taking a 2-0 lead only to lose 3-2. With all that craziness it's a little irrelevant to look at the shots statistics. One of those games in which one team out-shoots the other, but has fewer shots on target, there have been quite a number of those, but mostly involving a shots on target difference of just one. Here are the games where the difference in each metric is at least two:
def split_ticket(game):
shots_diff = game.HS - game.AS
sots_diff = game.HST - game.AST
return (shots_diff >= 2 and sots_diff <= -2) or (shots_diff <= -2 and sots_diff >= 2)
split_ticket_games = [g for g in epl.matches if split_ticket(g)]
def sot_wins(game):
goals_diff = game.FTHG - game.FTAG
sot_diff = game.HST - game.AST
return (goals_diff > 0 and sot_diff > 0) or (goals_diff < 0 and sot_diff < 0)
def shots_wins(game):
goals_diff = game.FTHG - game.FTAG
shots_diff = game.HS - game.AS
return (goals_diff > 0 and shots_diff > 0) or (goals_diff < 0 and shots_diff < 0)
split_ticket_sots = [g for g in split_ticket_games if sot_wins(g)]
split_ticket_shots = [g for g in split_ticket_games if shots_wins(g)]
split_ticket_draws = [g for g in split_ticket_games if not sot_wins(g) and not shots_wins(g)]
display(HTML('<h2>Split ticket when Shots Wins</h2>'))
display(HTML(league_analysis.html_games(split_ticket_shots)))
display(HTML('<h2>Split ticket when SOTs Wins</h2>'))
display(HTML(league_analysis.html_games(split_ticket_sots)))
display(HTML('<h2>Split ticket draws</h2>'))
display(HTML(league_analysis.html_games(split_ticket_draws)))
So there are 17 such games and West Ham's win over Everton was only the second such that the team with the higher shots count wins. West Ham also account for 2 of the 4 games in which a split ticket resulted in a draw. The intuition here is that a leading team is patient enough to delay shooting until presented with a decent chance, one they are more likely to hit the target from. Whilst a team behind has more urgency and perhaps desperation and hence take a lot of shots but fewer of them hit the target.
Manchester City 4-0 Aston Villa¶
Routine win. As I pointed out, Manchester City are not out of this yet. If they win their game in hand against Newcastle (which seems quite likely) then just 2 points separate them from Tottenham and 7 from Leicester.
Newcastle 1-3 Bournemouth¶
Bournemouth now overtake Crystal Palace up into 14th, that should be them. There are enough poor teams below and they only need 5 more points to get to the magical 40 points. It is now more a question of whether Bournemouth will make it into the top half of the league. Watford, Everton and West Brom, all look catchable, but that will only take them to 11th, above that, there doesn't seem to be any obvious contenders for Bournemouth to catch. Best bet would be Stoke, eight points is not impossible. Here is the form over the last ten games:
stats = league_analysis.last_x_game_stats(epl, 10)
display(HTML(league_analysis.header_stat_tables(epl, stats=stats)))
So only a point to choose between Bournemouth and Stoke, so it is hard to see Bournemouth making the top half, though they do have a better team rating over those games, so perhaps 1 point was a bit unfortunate. A good finish could easily see Bournemouth 11th though, which would have to represent a pretty successful season. Hard to begrudge them 11th given that that is where they are in team rating.
As an aside, look who is top for the last ten games. But also look how crowded it is.
Southampton 1-1 Sunderland¶
Both teams a touch unfortunate here. Sunderland for conceding so late on when 3 points would have been so valuable to them, but Southampton had a man sent off (probably fairly) and yet still managed to out-shoot their visitors. So if it weren't for the timing of the goals I suspect Sunderland would be very happy to be leaving with a point.
The great news looking forward for Sunderland is that they are in 12th place for team rating over the last ten games.
Swansea 1-0 Norwich¶
A massive three points for Swansea. The game was generally a very even game and could have gone either way. It seems clear now that Aston Villa are to be joined in the Championship next season with two from Sunderland, Norwich, and Newcastle. Swansea will still want a few quick points to be more assured of safety and Crystal Palace have imploded so badly that they must be starting to fear the worst. Here are the fixtures for the bottom clubs:
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Norwich', 'Newcastle', 'Sunderland', 'Swansea', 'Crystal Palace'])
After hosting Manchester City, Norwich have the run of their premier league lives, taking on all their relegation rivals except Swansea. Of the five, Sunderland have the most winnable final game against Watford, Newcastle and Swansea will want to be safe or at least out of the relegation zone before the final day (assuming the top teams have something to play for). In fact for Swansea they will want some points nowish, their final four games look tough, in general they have the toughest run in, so those three points at the hands of Norwich were desperately important. Norwich similarly have a very tough final three games, so they need those points earlier in the run, but it's by no means impossible.
Tottenham 2-2 Arsenal¶
A dominating performance from Tottenham even before the red card. It would have been devastating for Tottenham fans to go in a goal down despite their superior first half performance, and worst still not to have taken all three points despite being a goal and a man up. Still this performance somewhat cements Tottenham has the best challengers.
Watford 0-1 Leicester¶
Not quite a convincing win for Leicester, but they did generate more shots than their hosts. What is more, it's another three points towards an unlikely title.
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool¶
Well, Palace were a little unlucky to lose this one, although despite Liverpool having a man red carded they still managed more shots than Palace. That is now 12 games without a win for Palace and in the last 10 games they have mustered just 2 points. Relegation form, and it's now starting to be a real concern, with Swansea now joint there are a dwindling number of teams that can rescue a Palace that fail to start winning again. The next three fixtures are Manchester United, Leicester and West Ham, none of which look easily winnable. They still have Norwich and Newcastle to play but outside of that there are few inviting games left for Palace. But they do have 8 points in hand over Sunderland and 9 over Newcastle and Norwich.
Liverpool are good. An overall team rating of 3rd both for the whole league and for the last ten games. Could they make the top four?
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Liverpool', 'Man United', 'West Ham', 'Man City', 'Arsenal'])
Overcoming West Ham and Manchester United seems doable, but to get into the top four they will need to make up 8 or 9 points on Manchester City or Arsenal (let's assume Manchester City take all three points from Newcastle). I think their best bet is for Arsenal to drop out, but Arsenal have a pretty gentle run-in. City have a bit more challenging one. Liverpool have one on a par with City but their three hardest games come next, Chelsea, Southampton, and Tottenham. So at the moment I'd have to be bearish on Liverpool to make the top 4 but that would change quickly if they picked up 9, or perhaps 7 points from the next three games.
West Brom 1-0 Manchester United¶
Another game that was interrupted by a (deserved) red card. What would have happened without that red card? Nobody knows. But West Brom just about deserved their victory. To score with only two shots on target is perhaps a touch fortunate, but that is the game that Manchester United have played all season.
Thanks for reading.
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