{ "metadata": { "nikola": { "category": "", "date": "2015-09-14 13:57:19 UTC+01:00", "description": "", "link": "", "slug": "epl-11-13-september-2015", "tags": "", "title": "EPL 11-13 September 2015", "type": "text" }, "signature": "sha256:21de25eb5ddc0bd89f43638a673881070e5f2a00b9f62f54753ffb9c6f5653a6" }, "nbformat": 3, "nbformat_minor": 0, "worksheets": [ { "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# EPL 11-13th September 2015\n", "\n", "Another weekend in the EPL, let's look at the basic statistics for all the games:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "%matplotlib inline\n", "import league_analysis\n", "from IPython.display import display, HTML\n", "epl = league_analysis.epl\n", "league_analysis.display_matches(epl, '12/09/15', '14/09/15')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamArsenalStoke
Goals20
Shots299
SOT124
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamCrystal PalaceMan City
Goals01
Shots1021
SOT27
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamEvertonChelsea
Goals31
Shots1415
SOT92
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamMan UnitedLiverpool
Goals31
Shots98
SOT34
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamNorwichBournemouth
Goals31
Shots127
SOT42
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamWatfordSwansea
Goals10
Shots178
SOT63
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamWest BromSouthampton
Goals00
Shots814
SOT14
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamLeicesterAston Villa
Goals32
Shots2111
SOT64
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamSunderlandTottenham
Goals01
Shots1215
SOT24
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamWest HamNewcastle
Goals20
Shots1714
SOT34
\n", "
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 1 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Everton 3-1 Chelsea\n", "\n", "Chelsea are not having a great start to the season. As others have [pointed out](http://statsbomb.com/2015/09/what-the-hell-chelsea-premier-league-stat-round-up/) this is not a case of having underlying performance and getting a bunch of unlucky results. The performance for Chelsea simply is not there. In this case they have a respectable number of shots at goal, in fact out-shooting their hosts 14-15, but it is the shots on target that reveals that the score line was anything but a fluke. Everton had 9 shots on target to Chelsea's 2. If we take the [average number of shots on target per goal in the premier league](http://allanderek.github.io/football-analysis/posts/shots-per-goal/) and multiply by 9 vs 2 we get an average score line of 2.54 vs 0.57, so 3-1 is perfectly fair scoreline given those shots on targets. I still expect Chelsea to somewhat improve, but they will have to improve their performances rather than just allow luck to regress to the mean.\n", "\n", "" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Arsenal, Watford, Leicester, Norwich, Man City, and Tottenham\n", "\n", "Convincing victories (for varying definitions of the word 'convincing') for Arsenal, Watford, Leicester, Norwich and Tottenham. Generally indicating that they were worthy winners." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Southampton 0-0 West Brom\n", "\n", "Southampton can consider themselves a tad unfortunate not to have scored a winner for a very valuable away victory. The total number of shots shows some dominance and the fact that they had 4 shots on target suggests that they weren't simply shooting on sight of goal." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Manchester United 3-1 Liverpool\n", "\n", "Manchester United continue to over-perform their statistics. For Man United, it does have the feel of a an over-performance with some real underlying strength, rather than simply riding their luck. To have scored with all 3 shots on target (one of which was a penalty) would generally leave the opposition feeling a little hard done by. But few who actually watched the game would consider the Liverpool side really worthy of even a draw. In short, Manchester United are becoming an interesting team to watch." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# West Ham 2-0 Newcastle\n", "\n", "Which leaves us with West Ham's win over Newcastle. Again, Newcastle could feel a touch aggrieved not to have garnered a draw here. In general West Ham are over-performing. Scoring with 2 out of their 3 shots on target is a very good return. I somehow suspect that West Ham will begin reverting somewhat. But on the positive side, they out-shot their opponents with a healthy 17 shots, albeit conceding 17." ] } ], "metadata": {} } ] }