EPL 16-18th January 2016

EPL 16-18th January 2016

Another look at some of the simple statistics underlying the matches in the English Premier league. A weekend that saw Manchester City claw back two points on Arsenal and Leicester who remain on top of the league separated only by goal difference and then only by a point to Manchester City.

In [2]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '16/01/2016', '18/01/2016')
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Leicester
Goals 1 1
Shots 14 12
SOT 5 5
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Norwich
Goals 3 0
Shots 15 10
SOT 8 3
Home Away
Team Chelsea Everton
Goals 3 3
Shots 14 9
SOT 7 4
Home Away
Team Man City Crystal Palace
Goals 4 0
Shots 17 9
SOT 4 3
Home Away
Team Newcastle West Ham
Goals 2 1
Shots 23 10
SOT 10 3
Home Away
Team Southampton West Brom
Goals 3 0
Shots 9 9
SOT 5 0
Home Away
Team Tottenham Sunderland
Goals 4 1
Shots 26 5
SOT 11 2
Home Away
Team Liverpool Man United
Goals 0 1
Shots 19 7
SOT 4 1
Home Away
Team Stoke Arsenal
Goals 0 0
Shots 14 8
SOT 6 3
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 44
- Arsenal 44
3 Man City 43
4 Tottenham 39
5 Man United 37
6 West Ham 35
7 Stoke 33
8 Crystal Palace 31
- Liverpool 31
10 Southampton 30
11 Watford 29
- Everton 29
13 West Brom 27
14 Chelsea 25
15 Bournemouth 24
16 Norwich 23
17 Newcastle 21
18 Swansea 19
19 Sunderland 18
20 Aston Villa 12
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.268646140939205
2 Tottenham 0.2095837986514689
3 Arsenal 0.12968815748790902
4 Liverpool 0.12594760206332867
5 Southampton 0.09705813917529782
6 Man United 0.08331574714593583
7 Leicester 0.04992989660149112
8 Chelsea 0.027711637191637863
9 Everton -6.215174755661024e-05
10 West Ham -0.007394766925740114
11 Bournemouth -0.011344341125768903
12 Watford -0.016013565655321492
13 Stoke -0.06797834104243798
14 Crystal Palace -0.06864341529257256
15 Swansea -0.07359592731905512
16 Norwich -0.11707431145573177
17 West Brom -0.1353146231932329
18 Aston Villa -0.1538345508230108
19 Sunderland -0.18576134406507852
20 Newcastle -0.18866298263445705
Position Team PDO
1 Everton 0.10705009276437849
2 Leicester 0.09603208104685523
3 Man United 0.09358974358974359
4 Stoke 0.09020523534472166
5 West Ham 0.08571428571428569
6 Arsenal 0.07997867235403891
7 Watford 0.05212355212355213
8 Man City 0.035278413424866484
9 Sunderland 0.019766997708174194
10 Tottenham 0.008633980881899483
11 West Brom 0.00773993808049539
12 Chelsea 0.0064102564102563875
13 Crystal Palace -0.0196629213483146
14 Newcastle -0.035048165607706516
15 Norwich -0.04611528822055139
16 Southampton -0.048308542845860225
17 Swansea -0.10833088018840153
18 Aston Villa -0.11191522357198241
19 Liverpool -0.14617044228694714
20 Bournemouth -0.15066266566641662

Aston Villa 1-1 Leicester

Aston Villa have not managed to out-shoot many teams this season, so to do so against (one of) the league leaders is possibly a sign of improvement. Which makes it a bit of shame that they are now further from safety than previously due to those closest to them having good weekends, notably Newcastle and Swansea.

Bournemouth 3-0 Norwich

Bournemouth continue to improve and that result sees them leapfrog Norwich into 15th. Again because of the good weekends for Newcastle and Swansea they are still quite far from a comfortable position. Norwich beginning to slide rather worryingly.

Chelsea 3-3 Everton

A very entertaining game with a bit of controversy at the end. However, it's hard to make the case that Chelsea didn't deserve a draw overall. On a non-stat related note, I don't have much love for John Terry, but I was surprised that no-one on MOTD mentioned that although his draw-saving goal was clearly off-side, it was a pretty good finish.

It's hard to really see Chelsea as relegation candidates, but it's hard not to comment on the fact that they are just 4 points from safety. However, they are equally just 5 points from 10th placed Southampton. Chelsea are currently 8th for team rating, and it does not seem entirely unlikely that they could end the season there. Whilst Southampton and Liverpool stand between Chelsea in 8th there is a trio of teams above 8th who could slip back in Crystal Palace, Stoke City and West Ham United.

Manchester City 4-0 Crystal Palace

The two Manchester teams managed 5 shots on target between them and scored all five of them. In truth though the sky blue half of Manchester were entirely on top here and were always going to win. Crystal Palace are having a tough time of it at the moment.

Newcastle 2-1 West Ham

A deserved victory for Newcastle, something I don't think we've said so far this season.

Southampton 3-0 West Brom

Interesting one, both teams had nine shots, but West Brom did not manage a single shot on target whilst Southampton managed 5. It is clear who deserved this one.

Tottenham 4-1 Sunderland

About as one-sided as it gets. Worrying times for Sunderland, who might have thought the 4-2 victory over Swansea could have represented a rise in form. Not on this evidence. Having said that Tottenham are one of the best teams in the league, so perhaps away to Tottenham is just not the kind of game relegation scrappers have much hope for.

Liverpool 0-1 Manchester United

Not much less one-side than the Tottenham, but in this case Liverpool lose. The big difference here is the shots on target, 4-1 is not that large an advantage.

Stoke 0-0 Arsenal

Bit of a slip up this for Arsenal and Stoke, if anything, deservered a win.

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