EPL 17-19 October 2015
EPL 3-4th October 2015
A brief look at the shot statistics which underlay the weekend's games. Teams of course had an extended break due to the international weekend.
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
weekend_matches = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '17/10/2015', '19/10/2015')
league_analysis.display_given_matches(weekend_matches)
Chelsea 2-0 Aston Villa
Chelsea sure needed this. It's not a particularly dominant home victory, particularly against Aston Villa who have not been posting stellar numbers so far.
Crystal Palace 1-3 West Ham
Something of a surprise and this no doubt now has a lot of the statistics people scratching their heads. I for one have been very bearish on West Ham, concluding that they have been very lucky and in particular away from home. But this was away from home and very well deserved victory. They had the second most total shots of the weekend after Leicester:
league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'shots')
They also had the best total shots ratio for the weekend:
league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'tsr')
To see just how dominant a tsr of 0.8 is, we look at matches so far within the league in which a team has recorded a total shots ratio of 0.8 or more. There have only been 4 such matches. Twice Newcastle have been on the recieving end. Incredibly West Ham have been both on the receiving end and, are now, the team dishing out the shots.
matches_so_far = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '01/08/2015', '19/10/2015')
high_tsr_matches = (m for m in matches_so_far if m.home_tsr >= 0.8 or m.away_tsr >= 0.8)
league_analysis.display_given_matches(high_tsr_matches)
display(HTML('There have been {0} matches in total'.format(len(matches_so_far))))
This week it wasn't just the shots but the shots on target. For this West Ham were third best in the league this weekend, behind the title contenders Manchester City and (yes) Arsenal.
league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'sotr')
The lingering worry for West Ham fans will be that all of these shots have come they were only 15th equal for their target ratio, that is the ratio of their total shots that were on target.
league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'target_ratio',
stat_header_name='Target Ratio')
And they still have a pretty large PDO, significantly higher than the second placed team, Manchester United, who are themselves something of an outlier:
league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'pdo')
Watford 0-3 Arsenal, Manchester City 5-1 Bournemouth
Two very dominate victories. These two feature at the top end of the tables above for this week. Team of the week here could easily go to Arsenal, although as we see above the Manchester City total shot ratio and shots on target ratio are both better than Arsenal's, let's not forget Arsenal were away from home.
Everton 0-3 Manchester United
Manchester United continue to make very good use of the shots that they have. Everton actually managed more shots than United, but United had 7 out of 10 shots on target, that is a very high target ratio beaten only by their Manchester rivals this week. A continuing theme is that United seem capable of scoring a high percentage of their shots on target, here scoring 3 of the 7, which is just higher than they have managed all season, which puts them 4th in the league:
league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'goals_sot_for_ratio')
Coupled with this is a propensity for a high proportion of their shots to be on target, second only to Manchester City:
league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'sot_for_ratio')
Southampton 2-2 Leicester
Incredible match with Leicester managing 26 shots on target against a side that is generally managing to avoid shots against, Southampton are still only 16th with 103 which includes the 26 from Leicester:
league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'shots_against')
Newcastle 6-2 Norwich
As others have pointed out it is not often a team concedes 6 and then scores 6 in the next match. More interesting here is that Newcastle had exactly 6 shots on target and scored with all six. How very Manchester United of them. I suspect this will be a statistical blip, so far still not very much for Newcastle fans to get excited about, other than:
West Brom 1-0 Sunderland
It seems like the north east teams will indeed both be involved in a scrap for relegation. It seems more likely that Sunderland will avoid a scrap only by being so far behind safety that their relegation is assured from Christmas onwards. This week, away from home, they actually managed to out-shoot their opponents, just a shame their opponents were West Brom. Tony Pulis does genuinely appear to have some ability to get more (points) from a team than their shot numbers suggest they should.
Tottenham 0-0 Liverpool
Not a terribly exciting match for Liverpool's new manager. I think both of these teams are not getting the points they deserve. These two teams lie just above Southampton in the shots against column. Liverpool are 18th in the league for PDO, so they may have so far been a bit unlucky. As for Tottenham, they just aren't scoring very often. These two are the bottom teams in the league for shooting percentage, that is the percentage of their shots on target that are goals.
Swansea 0-1 Stoke
I generally think Swansea are pretty decent mid-table side. No major worries. They were probably a touch unlucky to come away with nothing. Stoke fans have more cause for concern, but a good away 3 points was this.
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