{ "metadata": { "nikola": { "category": "", "date": "2015-10-21 08:02:09 UTC+01:00", "description": "", "link": "", "slug": "epl-17-19-october-2015", "tags": "", "title": "EPL 17-19 October 2015", "type": "text" }, "signature": "sha256:9bdff7bba2689f99a5fe6a8e44de0526de85efcad3ce1ad1fc35ca578d701ae3" }, "nbformat": 3, "nbformat_minor": 0, "worksheets": [ { "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# EPL 3-4th October 2015\n", "\n", "A brief look at the shot statistics which underlay the weekend's games. Teams of course had an extended break due to the international weekend." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "%matplotlib inline\n", "import league_analysis\n", "from IPython.display import display, HTML\n", "epl = league_analysis.epl\n", "weekend_matches = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '17/10/2015', '19/10/2015')\n", "league_analysis.display_given_matches(weekend_matches)" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamChelseaAston Villa
Goals20
Shots98
SOT31
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamCrystal PalaceWest Ham
Goals13
Shots624
SOT14
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamEvertonMan United
Goals03
Shots1210
SOT37
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamMan CityBournemouth
Goals51
Shots155
SOT111
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamSouthamptonLeicester
Goals22
Shots1426
SOT67
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamTottenhamLiverpool
Goals00
Shots1312
SOT43
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamWatfordArsenal
Goals03
Shots817
SOT16
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamWest BromSunderland
Goals10
Shots89
SOT12
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamNewcastleNorwich
Goals62
Shots1118
SOT66
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamSwanseaStoke
Goals01
Shots149
SOT22
\n", "
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 1 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Chelsea 2-0 Aston Villa\n", "\n", "Chelsea sure needed this. It's not a particularly dominant home victory, particularly against Aston Villa who have not been posting stellar numbers so far.\n", "\n", "# Crystal Palace 1-3 West Ham\n", "\n", "Something of a surprise and this no doubt now has a lot of the statistics people scratching their heads. I for one have been very bearish on West Ham, concluding that they have been very lucky and in particular away from home. But this was away from home and very well deserved victory. They had the second most total shots of the weekend after Leicester:\n", "\n", "" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'shots')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team shots
1 Leicester 26
2 West Ham 24
3 Norwich 18
4 Arsenal 17
5 Man City 15
6 Southampton 14
- Swansea 14
8 Tottenham 13
9 Everton 12
- Liverpool 12
11 Newcastle 11
12 Man United 10
13 Chelsea 9
- Sunderland 9
- Stoke 9
16 Aston Villa 8
- Watford 8
- West Brom 8
19 Crystal Palace 6
20 Bournemouth 5
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 2 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "They also had the best total shots ratio for the weekend:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'tsr')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team tsr
1 West Ham 0.8
2 Man City 0.75
3 Arsenal 0.68
4 Leicester 0.65
5 Norwich 0.6206896551724138
6 Swansea 0.6086956521739131
7 Everton 0.5454545454545454
8 Chelsea 0.5294117647058824
- Sunderland 0.5294117647058824
10 Tottenham 0.52
11 Liverpool 0.48
12 Aston Villa 0.47058823529411764
- West Brom 0.47058823529411764
14 Man United 0.45454545454545453
15 Stoke 0.391304347826087
16 Newcastle 0.3793103448275862
17 Southampton 0.35
18 Watford 0.32
19 Bournemouth 0.25
20 Crystal Palace 0.2
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 3 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "To see just how dominant a tsr of 0.8 is, we look at matches so far within the league in which a team has recorded a total shots ratio of 0.8 or more. There have only been 4 such matches. Twice Newcastle have been on the recieving end. Incredibly West Ham have been both on the receiving end and, are now, the team dishing out the shots." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "matches_so_far = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '01/08/2015', '19/10/2015')\n", "high_tsr_matches = (m for m in matches_so_far if m.home_tsr >= 0.8 or m.away_tsr >= 0.8)\n", "league_analysis.display_given_matches(high_tsr_matches)\n", "display(HTML('There have been {0} matches in total'.format(len(matches_so_far))))" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamSwanseaNewcastle
Goals20
Shots194
SOT62
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamNewcastleArsenal
Goals01
Shots122
SOT09
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamMan CityWest Ham
Goals12
Shots276
SOT83
\n", "
\n", "
\n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", " \n", "
HomeAway
TeamCrystal PalaceWest Ham
Goals13
Shots624
SOT14
\n", "
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] }, { "html": [ "There have been 90 matches in total" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 4 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "This week it wasn't just the shots but the shots on target. For this West Ham were third best in the league this weekend, behind the title contenders Manchester City and (yes) Arsenal." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'sotr')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team sotr
1 Man City 0.9166666666666666
2 Arsenal 0.8571428571428571
3 West Ham 0.8
4 Chelsea 0.75
5 Man United 0.7
6 Sunderland 0.6666666666666666
7 Tottenham 0.5714285714285714
8 Leicester 0.5384615384615384
9 Newcastle 0.5
- Norwich 0.5
- Swansea 0.5
- Stoke 0.5
13 Southampton 0.46153846153846156
14 Liverpool 0.42857142857142855
15 West Brom 0.3333333333333333
16 Everton 0.3
17 Aston Villa 0.25
18 Crystal Palace 0.2
19 Watford 0.14285714285714285
20 Bournemouth 0.08333333333333333
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 5 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "The lingering worry for West Ham fans will be that all of these shots have come they were only 15th equal for their target ratio, that is the ratio of their total shots that were on target." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.rank_teams_single_matches(weekend_matches, 'target_ratio',\n", " stat_header_name='Target Ratio')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team Target Ratio
1 Man City 0.4230769230769231
2 Man United 0.4117647058823529
3 Newcastle 0.35294117647058826
4 Southampton 0.3
5 Arsenal 0.2608695652173913
6 Chelsea 0.25
- Norwich 0.25
8 Tottenham 0.23529411764705882
9 Leicester 0.21212121212121213
10 Everton 0.2
- Liverpool 0.2
12 Sunderland 0.18181818181818182
- Stoke 0.18181818181818182
14 Bournemouth 0.16666666666666666
15 Crystal Palace 0.14285714285714285
- West Ham 0.14285714285714285
17 Swansea 0.125
18 Aston Villa 0.1111111111111111
- Watford 0.1111111111111111
- West Brom 0.1111111111111111
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 6 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "And they still have a pretty large PDO, significantly higher than the second placed team, Manchester United, who are themselves something of an outlier:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'pdo')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team pdo
1 West Ham 0.2337507453786523
2 Man United 0.13257575757575757
3 Everton 0.09285714285714286
4 Arsenal 0.07500000000000001
5 Crystal Palace 0.07046070460704607
6 Newcastle 0.06071428571428572
7 Stoke 0.06062424969987995
8 Chelsea 0.03205128205128205
9 Leicester 0.009469696969696961
10 West Brom 0.0034453057708871415
11 Man City -0.009009009009008973
12 Tottenham -0.022321428571428575
13 Watford -0.0231578947368421
14 Aston Villa -0.025641025641025605
15 Sunderland -0.04538461538461536
16 Swansea -0.04949314251639833
17 Norwich -0.10298102981029805
18 Liverpool -0.1515151515151515
19 Bournemouth -0.1523809523809524
20 Southampton -0.15598290598290598
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 7 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Watford 0-3 Arsenal, Manchester City 5-1 Bournemouth\n", "\n", "Two very dominate victories. These two feature at the top end of the tables above for this week. Team of the week here could easily go to Arsenal, although as we see above the Manchester City total shot ratio and shots on target ratio are both better than Arsenal's, let's not forget Arsenal were away from home." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Everton 0-3 Manchester United\n", "\n", "Manchester United continue to make very good use of the shots that they have. Everton actually managed more shots than United, but United had 7 out of 10 shots on target, that is a very high target ratio beaten only by their Manchester rivals this week. A continuing theme is that United seem capable of scoring a high percentage of their shots on target, here scoring 3 of the 7, which is just higher than they have managed all season, which puts them 4th in the league:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'goals_sot_for_ratio')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team goals_sot_for_ratio
1 West Ham 0.5128205128205128
2 Newcastle 0.4
3 Leicester 0.3958333333333333
4 Man United 0.375
5 Chelsea 0.358974358974359
6 Everton 0.34285714285714286
7 Norwich 0.34146341463414637
8 Bournemouth 0.3333333333333333
9 Man City 0.32432432432432434
10 Sunderland 0.32
11 Aston Villa 0.3076923076923077
12 Crystal Palace 0.2926829268292683
13 Southampton 0.28846153846153844
14 Stoke 0.2647058823529412
15 West Brom 0.25925925925925924
16 Arsenal 0.25
17 Watford 0.24
18 Swansea 0.23255813953488372
19 Tottenham 0.19642857142857142
20 Liverpool 0.18181818181818182
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 8 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Coupled with this is a propensity for a high proportion of their shots to be on target, second only to Manchester City:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'sot_for_ratio')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team sot_for_ratio
1 Man City 0.4134078212290503
2 Man United 0.40404040404040403
3 Tottenham 0.38620689655172413
4 Newcastle 0.38461538461538464
5 Stoke 0.37362637362637363
6 Southampton 0.36363636363636365
- Arsenal 0.36363636363636365
8 Crystal Palace 0.35344827586206895
9 Swansea 0.3524590163934426
10 Bournemouth 0.35106382978723405
11 Leicester 0.34782608695652173
12 Liverpool 0.33587786259541985
13 Everton 0.32710280373831774
14 West Ham 0.30952380952380953
15 Norwich 0.3082706766917293
16 West Brom 0.3068181818181818
17 Sunderland 0.2976190476190476
18 Chelsea 0.291044776119403
19 Aston Villa 0.26262626262626265
20 Watford 0.22522522522522523
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 9 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Southampton 2-2 Leicester\n", "\n", "Incredible match with Leicester managing 26 shots on target against a side that is generally managing to avoid shots against, Southampton are still only 16th with 103 which includes the 26 from Leicester:" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "collapsed": false, "input": [ "league_analysis.display_statistic_rankings(epl, 'shots_against')" ], "language": "python", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "html": [ "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "\n", "
Position Team shots_against
1 Newcastle 163
- Crystal Palace 163
3 Sunderland 149
4 Stoke 136
- West Ham 136
6 West Brom 132
7 Leicester 123
- Everton 123
9 Norwich 122
10 Chelsea 119
11 Aston Villa 117
12 Watford 116
- Swansea 116
14 Tottenham 115
15 Liverpool 104
16 Southampton 103
17 Arsenal 99
18 Bournemouth 94
19 Man United 86
20 Man City 78
" ], "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data", "text": [ "" ] } ], "prompt_number": 10 }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Newcastle 6-2 Norwich\n", "\n", "As [others have pointed out](http://statsbomb.com/2015/10/fun-order-and-klopp-week-9-in-the-premier-league/) it is not often a team concedes 6 and then scores 6 in the next match. More interesting here is that Newcastle had exactly 6 shots on target and scored with all six. How very Manchester United of them. I suspect this will be a statistical blip, so far still not very much for Newcastle fans to get excited about, other than:\n", "\n", "# West Brom 1-0 Sunderland\n", "\n", "It seems like the north east teams will indeed both be involved in a scrap for relegation. It seems more likely that Sunderland will avoid a scrap only by being so far behind safety that their relegation is assured from Christmas onwards. This week, away from home, they actually managed to out-shoot their opponents, just a shame their opponents were West Brom. Tony Pulis does genuinely appear to have some ability to get more (points) from a team than their shot numbers suggest they should." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Tottenham 0-0 Liverpool\n", "\n", "Not a terribly exciting match for Liverpool's new manager. I think both of these teams are not getting the points they deserve. These two teams lie just above Southampton in the shots against column. Liverpool are 18th in the league for PDO, so they may have so far been a bit unlucky. As for Tottenham, they just aren't scoring very often. These two are the bottom teams in the league for shooting percentage, that is the percentage of their shots on target that are goals." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Swansea 0-1 Stoke\n", "\n", "I generally think Swansea are pretty decent mid-table side. No major worries. They were probably a touch unlucky to come away with nothing. Stoke fans have more cause for concern, but a good away 3 points was this." ] } ], "metadata": {} } ] }