EPL 26-28 September 2015
EPL 27th-28th September 2015
Another weekend in the EPL, let's look at the basic statistics for all the games:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.display_matches(epl, '26/09/15', '28/09/15')
Leicester 2-5 Arsenal
Possibly the most entertaining game. Arsenal will be very happy with this of course, Arsenal have been posting pretty excellent numbers all season without really reaping the benefits of it. Here they did. Leicester on the other hand will obviously not be keen to lose too many games at home, but taking 16 shots, 7 of which were on target against an Arsenal side that have tended to dominate shots will be some consolation. Just how good/decent were Leicester against Arsenal? They took more shots against Arsenal than the average so far, but also let in more:
epl.compare_game_against_opponents('Leicester', 'Arsenal', '26/09/15')
This tells us, for example, that Leicester took 7 shots on target, but on average Arsenal only face 4.86 shots on target against them. Similarly though Arsenal manage 7.57 shots on target but managed a healthy 12 in this game. So take from that what you will. Leicester can at least be pleased to be doing relatively well in the league whilst also being entertaining.
Liverpool 3-2 Aston Villa
Liverpool continue post decent numbers. I suspect the victory will be taken with some relief by Liverpool fans who will no doubt still feel that 3-2 was not convincing enough. But, Villa scored twice from four shots on target, and Liverpool themselves managed 12 shots on target. How many times so far in the league has a team had 12 or more shots on target:
matches_so_far = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '01/08/2015', '28/09/2015')
high_sot_matches = (m for m in matches_so_far if m.HST >= 12 or m.AST >= 12)
league_analysis.display_given_matches(high_sot_matches)
display(HTML('There have been {0} matches in total'.format(len(matches_so_far))))
So only 3 in 70 matches, and the other two were both Arsenal, and both involved exactly 12 shots on target. So no team so far has managed more shots on target than Liverpool did against Aston Villa.
Man United 3-0 Sunderland
Fairly typical Man United win. They are scoring quite a lot from their not-overwhelming number of shots on target. Sunderland remain abjectly poor. This game did not tell us much we did not already know.
Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea
I certainly did not predict Newcastle to get anything out of this game. Shot numbers suggest this was a pretty fair result. Most people watching suspect Chelsea just ran out of time after waking up in the 70th minute. Not sure what else to say about this.
Southampton 3-1 Swansea
Pretty straightforward home victory for Southampton. The scoreline perhaps flatters them a little. But this is in keeping with the two sides' performances over the first 6 matches so this was not a surprise.
Stoke 2-1 Bournemouth
Bournemouth were unluckly here in a number of ways. More generally speaking I would be more concerned if I were a Stoke fan than if I were a Bournemouth fan. Partly that is due to expectations at the start of the season. But at this point Stoke fans should be somewhat concerned. Bournemouth look good to avoid relegation. If I had to bet at this point, it would be for Bournemouth to finish above Stoke. But we're not clear on how much depth that Bournemouth squad has, and one of the more unlucky parts of the game for Bournemouth was the injury sustained.
Tottenham 4-1 Manchester City
A really excellent game. Last week City were by far the better team against West Ham and were just somewhat unlucky that West Ham rolled better dice. This week, the game was pretty evenly matched and City could just as easily have won 4-1 as lost 4-1. But even so, the fact that Tottenham competed so well with Manchester City, when few other teams have will be very encouraging to Tottenham fans:
epl.compare_game_against_opponents('Tottenham', 'Man City', '26/09/15')
Tottenham managed 8 shots on target, when on average Manchester City are only giving up 2.7 shots on target. They also had 15 shots of any kind when again City are only giving up 9.6 shots on average. Tottenham didn't really manage to stop Manchester City, but unlike most of Man City's opponents so far, Tottenham managed to give (almost) as good as they got.
West Ham 2-2 Norwich
A fair enough draw. West Ham's numbers still don't look great. This was a decent game for West Ham, but let's not forget they were playing at home against the team promoted (from the play-offs) and still only managed enough to merit a draw. The league table continues to look good for West Ham, the shot counts continue not to. Seems likely that these two things cannot continue for an entire season, and the more likely one to evaporate is the league position.
Watford 0-1 Crystal Palace
Watford a touch unfortunate here. Crystal Palace have a slightly better shot count, but by a small enough margin that Watford were likely good for a draw. Especially given that the goal was scored from the penalty shot. The penalty was also given up rather needlessly when it was more than likely that Palace would not have mustered a shot on target. In general Watford seem to have more endeavour than their shot counts suggest. They need to find some way to turn good passages of play into shots on targets and, ultimately, goals. Of which there have been too few.
West Brom 2-3 Everton
Similarly here, the Everton, as the away team, have a slightly better shot count, but not so much better that West Brom won't feel agrieved not to have retained a point. In the end a very good victory for Everton having come from 2-0 down.
Plotting Statistics Ranking
The previous week we graphed how a each team's statistics have changed over the course of the yet still young season. This week we'll do the same thing, except that rather than graph the actual values for each statistic we'll do so for their rank. So for example rather than graph a team's points as, say 16, we now graph it as 1st. We'll begin with the most obvious statistic, points, here are how the teams have changed league position over the course of the first 7 games:
after_game_no_dicts = league_analysis.collect_after_game_dicts(epl, '01/08/2015', '28/09/2015')
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'points', rankings=True)
This obviously looks a bit crowded but we can instead look at only a few teams, for example the race to lead the premiership:
teams = ['Man United', 'Man City', 'Leicester', 'Swansea', 'Crystal Palace', 'West Ham']
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'points', rankings=True, teams=teams)
We can of course do the same thing for the bottom of the league.
teams = ['Sunderland', 'Newcastle', 'West Brom', 'Bournemouth', ]
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'points', rankings=True, teams=teams)
Plotting Shot Ratios
Shot ratios are one of the more repeatable metrics. There is some reason to consider shot ratios as being a better measure of skill. First the 'TSR', which stands for total shots ratio. This is the propotion of all the shots taken in a team's games that have been taken by that team. In other words shots for divided by total shots (shots for plus shots against).
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'tsr', rankings=True)
SOTR is basically the same thing but only counting shots on target rather than all shots.
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'sotr', rankings=True)
Both of these charts tells us that Newcastle and Sunderland are really pretty bad. They also state that Manchester City are probably the best team. West Ham fans might not want to get too comfortable at the top end of the table. PDO is intended to measure luck, it of course fails at this, but at least gives some idea where a team's luck may have been, at least with regards to shooting (it makes no attempt to, for example, measure the luck involved in an incorrect red card decision).
Manchester United are scoring from a lot of their shots on target, of which they aren't creating many, but they are also not giving up many. Hence they are towards the top of the SOTR chart. Southampton look genuinely good, and Leicester genuinely not terrible.
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'pdo', rankings=True)
So Manchester City have had a couple of bad days at the office, this will likely correct itself soon. Again, West Ham, might not be pleased with this, we see West Ham near the top of the points table, near the bottom of the shot ratio tables and dead 1st for PDO (or luck).
We see Manchester United apparently having a good dose of luck as well. This is likely due to the small number of shots on target in their games. Liverpool and Southampton can both expect better things to come. Not to forget Arsenal who have had a bit of an uptick in fortunes with their 5-2 victory over Leicester, but there is likely more to come.
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