EPL 29-31st August 2015

Having left for Tbilisi, Georgia to watch Scotland lose on Saturday August the 29th I'm only just getting back now to have a brief look over that weekend's results in the English Premier League.

Here are the stats from all the matches:

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.display_matches(epl, '29/08/15', '31/08/15')

Chelsea 1 - 2 Crystal Palace

A rare home defeat for Chelsea. Recall my look at Arsenal vs West Ham from the first weekend. It is rare for a team to out-shoot their opposition by so much and still lose. On that day Arsenal out-shot West Ham by 22-8 and on target by 6-4. So I think Chelsea are not quite so dominating here, but still deserved more from the game. In my shots post we saw that a team in the EPL typically scores one goal for every 4.34 shots on target so Chelsea could have expected 2-3 goals from their shots on target, and could have expected to lose 1-2 goals. Chelsea still look pretty bad, but this was probably an out-lier result.

Villa and Tottenham

Both teams here look a bit unfortunate to only attain a single point at home. They appear to have dominated their visitors in both total shots and shots on target.

City, Southampton and Arsenal

All had pretty convincing victories. Newcastle look pretty awful at the moment.

West Ham, Liverpool and Arsenal

West Ham didn't really warrant a 3-0 away victory to Liverpool but they certainly warranted a victory, unlike their victory at the Emirates. This probably tells you more about the relative strengths and ambitions of Liverpool and Arsenal than it does about West Ham.

Stoke and Manchester United

Aside from this, pretty fair draws for Bournemouth-Leicester and, whilst Stoke will feel a little hard done by for their home defeat to West Brom it is hardly much of an outlier. Similarly Manchester United managed to out-shoot Swansea and acheive the same shots on target as their hosts, but 2-1 is certainly within the bounds of a reasonable scoreline given those shot numbers. Particularly given that score-effects tend to affect shot numbers.

	Home	Away
Team	Aston Villa	Sunderland
Goals	2	2
Shots	21	7
SOT	6	3

	Home	Away
Team	Bournemouth	Leicester
Goals	1	1
Shots	5	4
SOT	2	2

	Home	Away
Team	Chelsea	Crystal Palace
Goals	1	2
Shots	26	13
SOT	9	6

	Home	Away
Team	Liverpool	West Ham
Goals	0	3
Shots	13	12
SOT	1	5

	Home	Away
Team	Man City	Watford
Goals	2	0
Shots	18	7
SOT	5	0