EPL 23rd-25th April 2016

English Premier League 23rd-25th of April

Leicester take a big step towards the title as Spurs falter against West Brom. Everything else in a little bit of stasis as we wind-up the premier league. A large block of clubs with little to play for.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '23/04/2016', '25/04/2016')))
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Southampton
Goals 2 4
Shots 16 17
SOT 7 7
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Chelsea
Goals 1 4
Shots 13 16
SOT 4 4
Home Away
Team Liverpool Newcastle
Goals 2 2
Shots 13 6
SOT 4 3
Home Away
Team Man City Stoke
Goals 4 0
Shots 11 14
SOT 6 2
Home Away
Team Leicester Swansea
Goals 4 0
Shots 18 9
SOT 9 1
Home Away
Team Sunderland Arsenal
Goals 0 0
Shots 12 20
SOT 3 7
Home Away
Team Tottenham West Brom
Goals 1 1
Shots 19 16
SOT 2 3
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 76
2 Tottenham 69
3 Arsenal 64
- Man City 64
5 Man United 59
6 West Ham 56
7 Liverpool 55
8 Southampton 54
9 Stoke 47
- Chelsea 47
11 Watford 41
- Bournemouth 41
- West Brom 41
- Everton 41
15 Swansea 40
16 Crystal Palace 39
17 Sunderland 31
- Norwich 31
19 Newcastle 30
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.25107234378705806
2 Man City 0.2461415592871838
3 Liverpool 0.16781349606087162
4 Arsenal 0.13402000842322226
5 Leicester 0.07971627277917204
6 Southampton 0.07376451592892258
7 Chelsea 0.056824124797705114
8 Man United 0.05567193099522776
9 West Ham 0.041456005799134034
10 Everton -0.011922972189335183
11 Bournemouth -0.03722365730797268
12 Watford -0.07672192497000656
13 Swansea -0.08705898497147734
14 Crystal Palace -0.08717824904516029
15 Stoke -0.1031083879377967
16 Norwich -0.12090656710033323
17 Sunderland -0.13012919376824242
18 West Brom -0.15250085765791244
19 Newcastle -0.16831721657135482
20 Aston Villa -0.20470190076462774
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.12400568181818183
2 West Ham 0.0714817880794702
3 Chelsea 0.06083290311478229
4 Man United 0.06026785714285715
5 Everton 0.06008428657435283
6 Arsenal 0.05681818181818182
7 West Brom 0.04474272930648765
8 Man City 0.03937320679761641
9 Watford 0.03469661414683206
10 Tottenham 0.02777777777777779
11 Sunderland 0.02736443883984868
12 Southampton 0.020129032258064505
13 Stoke -0.008436853002070366
14 Crystal Palace -0.025930851063829807
15 Swansea -0.03484848484848485
16 Liverpool -0.0812901977851927
17 Norwich -0.0850023288309269
18 Newcastle -0.09498910675381261
19 Bournemouth -0.13136645962732918
20 Aston Villa -0.16064085447263018

Leicester 4-0 Swansea, Tottenham 1-1 West Brom

So Tottenham would really have liked these results to have been swapped. Gaining two points on Leicester would have put them just 3 points behind and with a superior goal difference probably favourites. As it is, Leicester need one win from three, or three draws. Even after the result on Sunday, if Tottenham had seen past Pulis's West Brom, Leicester would still potentially need 5 points from 3 games. Winning one, losing one and drawing one seems a pretty plausible haul from their three remaining games, which will now be enough, but would not have been had Tottenham won on Monday night and their remaining games.

You have to say from the shot statistics Leicester really deserved their win against a Swansea side who are not quite mathematically safe since Norwich have 4 games to play, but can probably rest easy. In contrast a 1-1 draw seemed a fair result on Monday night.

Read more…

EPL 2-3rd April 2016

EPL 2nd-3rd of April 2016

I'm on holiday this week so a more brief than usual look at the the English Premier League in shot statistics. This was the week in which Leicester's lead at the top increased to 7 points after Tottenham failed to win at Anfield and Newcastle took a big step towards the Championship.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '02/04/2016', '03/04/2016')))
Home Away
Team Arsenal Watford
Goals 4 0
Shots 19 6
SOT 12 2
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Chelsea
Goals 0 4
Shots 15 11
SOT 4 8
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Man City
Goals 0 4
Shots 11 15
SOT 2 7
Home Away
Team Liverpool Tottenham
Goals 1 1
Shots 15 18
SOT 7 5
Home Away
Team Norwich Newcastle
Goals 3 2
Shots 13 13
SOT 6 5
Home Away
Team Stoke Swansea
Goals 2 2
Shots 12 12
SOT 5 3
Home Away
Team Sunderland West Brom
Goals 0 0
Shots 22 3
SOT 7 0
Home Away
Team West Ham Crystal Palace
Goals 2 2
Shots 18 12
SOT 6 5
Home Away
Team Leicester Southampton
Goals 1 0
Shots 11 10
SOT 4 2
Home Away
Team Man United Everton
Goals 1 0
Shots 10 7
SOT 2 1
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 69
2 Tottenham 62
3 Arsenal 58
4 Man City 54
5 Man United 53
6 West Ham 51
7 Stoke 47
- Southampton 47
9 Liverpool 45
10 Chelsea 44
11 West Brom 40
12 Bournemouth 38
- Everton 38
14 Swansea 37
- Watford 37
16 Crystal Palace 34
17 Norwich 31
18 Sunderland 27
19 Newcastle 25
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.24656122483025536
2 Tottenham 0.2401497571729931
3 Liverpool 0.1382427878387203
4 Arsenal 0.1284861762834652
5 Leicester 0.06962835691506863
6 Chelsea 0.0673964512855661
7 Man United 0.05510181920276379
8 Southampton 0.05111347407372008
9 Everton 0.035865889675056425
10 West Ham 0.02009568621742503
11 Bournemouth -0.0325774629243777
12 Watford -0.0686499115905561
13 Swansea -0.07024033325097351
14 Stoke -0.07101601669186798
15 Crystal Palace -0.08237108126504067
16 Norwich -0.12288480140992927
17 Sunderland -0.12903373750077157
18 West Brom -0.15381930348377384
19 Newcastle -0.17529144635371352
20 Aston Villa -0.20285708400383246
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.1200512992082079
2 Man United 0.08299682103273476
3 West Ham 0.07888337217549901
4 Arsenal 0.07331794780756257
5 West Brom 0.06853417899929531
6 Everton 0.06569343065693428
7 Chelsea 0.05541653633614846
8 Stoke 0.045856798069187465
9 Watford 0.03803689721490133
10 Man City 0.014146772767462401
11 Tottenham 0.006365849091930331
12 Southampton 0.005066051045273801
13 Sunderland -0.0012422360248446895
14 Swansea -0.014180672268907568
15 Crystal Palace -0.043394575678040226
16 Norwich -0.05180256636567315
17 Liverpool -0.10325948561242682
18 Newcastle -0.11611917494270435
19 Bournemouth -0.11701734957548915
20 Aston Villa -0.160603371783496

Matches

Three games ended 4-0 and two of them were wins for the away teams. All were relatively predictable wins though. Of the three Aston Villa might be the most aggrieved to have lost by such a wide margin after managing 15 shots.

I expected Southampton to take something from their game against the league leaders and was a touch surprised Leicester actually out-shot Southampton, though it was clearly quite a close game. Tottenham's game against Liverpool was a pretty good game with both teams having chances to win the match. Probably a draw was about deserved even if it was not really what Tottenham needed.

Sunderland had the most shots of the week, but still didn't get the win they needed. Manchester United did get the win they were after, again despite only 2 shots on target.

Read more…

EPL 19-20th March 2016

EPL 19-20th March 2016

Another week another win for Leicester and another step taken towards the premier league title. Here is the usual look at the underlying shot statistics for the weekend's matches.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '19/03/2016', '20/03/2016')))
Home Away
Team Chelsea West Ham
Goals 2 2
Shots 22 13
SOT 5 6
Home Away
Team Crystal Palace Leicester
Goals 0 1
Shots 12 8
SOT 4 3
Home Away
Team Everton Arsenal
Goals 0 2
Shots 8 11
SOT 2 3
Home Away
Team Swansea Aston Villa
Goals 1 0
Shots 10 12
SOT 1 2
Home Away
Team Watford Stoke
Goals 1 2
Shots 9 9
SOT 4 6
Home Away
Team West Brom Norwich
Goals 0 1
Shots 10 7
SOT 0 1
Home Away
Team Man City Man United
Goals 0 1
Shots 26 5
SOT 2 3
Home Away
Team Newcastle Sunderland
Goals 1 1
Shots 17 14
SOT 8 4
Home Away
Team Southampton Liverpool
Goals 3 2
Shots 16 18
SOT 5 9
Home Away
Team Tottenham Bournemouth
Goals 3 0
Shots 17 2
SOT 8 0
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 66
2 Tottenham 61
3 Arsenal 55
4 Man City 51
5 West Ham 50
- Man United 50
7 Southampton 47
8 Stoke 46
9 Liverpool 44
10 Chelsea 41
11 West Brom 39
12 Bournemouth 38
- Everton 38
14 Watford 37
15 Swansea 36
16 Crystal Palace 33
17 Norwich 28
18 Sunderland 26
19 Newcastle 25
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.24710791087088907
2 Man City 0.2389774252864094
3 Liverpool 0.14474279925123518
4 Arsenal 0.11075857211421597
5 Leicester 0.06704884032040781
6 Chelsea 0.06000709018853358
7 Southampton 0.0564910678235171
8 Man United 0.04970145468954883
9 Everton 0.04134731500654405
10 West Ham 0.01702386906932641
11 Bournemouth -0.017487104921353552
12 Watford -0.044764865254164565
13 Swansea -0.07266532147459098
14 Stoke -0.07437775266011082
15 Crystal Palace -0.08166059447588073
16 Norwich -0.1320042244399923
17 West Brom -0.14293860336833414
18 Sunderland -0.144966402635897
19 Newcastle -0.1792828769890239
20 Aston Villa -0.19994132690032004
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.11928904428904424
2 West Ham 0.0843942054433714
3 Man United 0.07763645998940116
4 Everton 0.0712962962962963
5 Arsenal 0.06744186046511627
6 West Brom 0.052837209302325605
7 Watford 0.05106179909329517
8 Stoke 0.050529100529100535
9 Chelsea 0.03754130112794807
10 Sunderland 0.019047619047619035
11 Southampton 0.007892606583917938
12 Tottenham -0.0008254656141979955
13 Man City -0.002348244687096379
14 Swansea -0.02093984172561103
15 Crystal Palace -0.04778243741263183
16 Norwich -0.061407440609592134
17 Bournemouth -0.10338445267054469
18 Liverpool -0.10624868504102669
19 Newcastle -0.11723565670934089
20 Aston Villa -0.14504241412877206

Chelsea 2-2 West Ham

Cracking game. A draw is probably about a fair result here. Chelsea had 9 more shots, but one fewer on target, this chimes well with the fact that Chelsea spent a good proportion of this match behind, including a late proportion of the game (which increases urgency). Since we're talking about Chelsea, this seems a good point to show the latest runs, with Chelsea unbeaten for 14 games.

Read more…

EPL 12-13th March 2016

EPL 12-14th March 2016

Fewer games this weekend as some matches had to take a back seat for the FA Cup. Which once again means that we are in the position that some teams have played a different number of games to other teams. Leicester meanwhile add another three points to their tally taking them closer to an astonishing title.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '12/03/2016', '14/03/2016')))
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Swansea
Goals 3 2
Shots 12 12
SOT 4 4
Home Away
Team Norwich Man City
Goals 0 0
Shots 5 15
SOT 0 3
Home Away
Team Stoke Southampton
Goals 1 2
Shots 13 11
SOT 2 4
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Tottenham
Goals 0 2
Shots 11 19
SOT 2 8
Home Away
Team Leicester Newcastle
Goals 1 0
Shots 10 13
SOT 1 2
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 63
2 Tottenham 58
3 Arsenal 52
4 Man City 51
5 West Ham 49
6 Man United 47
7 Southampton 44
- Liverpool 44
9 Stoke 43
10 Chelsea 40
11 West Brom 39
12 Everton 38
- Bournemouth 38
14 Watford 37
15 Swansea 33
- Crystal Palace 33
17 Norwich 25
- Sunderland 25
19 Newcastle 24
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.23660884120853484
2 Tottenham 0.23328915761161972
3 Liverpool 0.15405182682694996
4 Arsenal 0.10528295471992956
5 Leicester 0.068112982703401
6 Man United 0.06449431554152744
7 Southampton 0.05815324484103421
8 Chelsea 0.05672522787653218
9 Everton 0.05032448685887768
10 West Ham 0.023473784891819095
11 Bournemouth 0.0035773300853972137
12 Watford -0.0416931784440219
13 Swansea -0.07613499334019372
14 Stoke -0.08028182545517831
15 Crystal Palace -0.08336182485470581
16 Norwich -0.13582598943362723
17 West Brom -0.14441133703985323
18 Sunderland -0.1469299356435429
19 Newcastle -0.18954504516143245
20 Aston Villa -0.20278293793754384
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.11133004926108375
2 West Ham 0.09033989266547404
3 Everton 0.08514246947082765
4 Man United 0.0725925925925926
5 West Brom 0.05851462865716428
6 Watford 0.05732927359721618
7 Arsenal 0.05677315813230352
8 Stoke 0.04901960784313725
9 Chelsea 0.03658234126984128
10 Sunderland 0.013185168125287916
11 Man City 0.0020202020202019777
12 Tottenham -0.005199678370410077
13 Southampton -0.00992366412213741
14 Swansea -0.03229974160206717
15 Crystal Palace -0.038337368845843434
16 Norwich -0.06838768115942029
17 Liverpool -0.09057971014492755
18 Bournemouth -0.10582908885116016
19 Newcastle -0.11084905660377359
20 Aston Villa -0.1358695652173913

Bournemouth 3-2 Swansea

What a great game. When we get a 3-2, there are often 2 reasons for it. Either one team, generally the team that has won, has dominated and somehow the dominated team have flattered themselves to score twice. Alternatively, it is a pretty close game that either team could have won. This game appears to have been in the latter category.

It is fairly remarkable that 5 goals have been scored from 8 shots on target. So far in the league there have only been 3 other similar games, two involving West Brom and two involving Everton (and both teams have won one and lost one). Two of these two games have been split-ticket games (in which one team has more total shots but their opponents have more shots on target).

Read more…

EPL 05-06 March 2016

EPL 05-06th March 2016

Covering the matches played on weekend of the 5th and 6th of March, which saw a number of red cards, Leicester extend their lead at the top, whilst West Ham put in a claim for 5th position ahead of Manchester United.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '05/03/2016', '06/03/2016')))
Home Away
Team Chelsea Stoke
Goals 1 1
Shots 20 16
SOT 7 5
Home Away
Team Everton West Ham
Goals 2 3
Shots 15 17
SOT 8 5
Home Away
Team Man City Aston Villa
Goals 4 0
Shots 22 2
SOT 9 1
Home Away
Team Newcastle Bournemouth
Goals 1 3
Shots 14 16
SOT 3 5
Home Away
Team Southampton Sunderland
Goals 1 1
Shots 16 11
SOT 5 3
Home Away
Team Swansea Norwich
Goals 1 0
Shots 10 8
SOT 3 3
Home Away
Team Tottenham Arsenal
Goals 2 2
Shots 26 10
SOT 11 4
Home Away
Team Watford Leicester
Goals 0 1
Shots 11 14
SOT 4 7
Home Away
Team Crystal Palace Liverpool
Goals 1 2
Shots 14 19
SOT 4 5
Home Away
Team West Brom Man United
Goals 1 0
Shots 9 7
SOT 2 1
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 60
2 Tottenham 55
3 Arsenal 52
4 Man City 50
5 West Ham 49
6 Man United 47
7 Liverpool 44
8 Stoke 43
9 Southampton 41
10 Chelsea 40
11 West Brom 39
12 Everton 38
13 Watford 37
14 Bournemouth 35
15 Swansea 33
- Crystal Palace 33
17 Sunderland 25
18 Newcastle 24
- Norwich 24
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.23321106417139897
2 Tottenham 0.22778661274836162
3 Liverpool 0.15405182682694996
4 Arsenal 0.10528295471992956
5 Leicester 0.06836066297394815
6 Man United 0.06449431554152744
7 Southampton 0.05812744195322466
8 Chelsea 0.05672522787653218
9 Everton 0.05032448685887768
10 West Ham 0.023473784891819095
11 Bournemouth 0.0005541125541125291
12 Watford -0.0416931784440219
13 Swansea -0.07603239731756166
14 Stoke -0.08094872976455632
15 Crystal Palace -0.08336182485470581
16 Norwich -0.1304280386477053
17 West Brom -0.14441133703985323
18 Sunderland -0.1469299356435429
19 Newcastle -0.1924755363812481
20 Aston Villa -0.19568803856963907
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.10217089486305692
2 West Ham 0.09033989266547404
3 Everton 0.08514246947082765
4 Man United 0.0725925925925926
5 West Brom 0.05851462865716428
6 Watford 0.05732927359721618
7 Arsenal 0.05677315813230352
8 Stoke 0.05242424242424243
9 Chelsea 0.03658234126984128
10 Sunderland 0.013185168125287916
11 Man City 0.007856341189674487
12 Tottenham -0.010779672617350133
13 Southampton -0.012453800417804917
14 Swansea -0.026769230769230767
15 Crystal Palace -0.038337368845843434
16 Norwich -0.07708333333333334
17 Liverpool -0.09057971014492755
18 Newcastle -0.1013986013986014
19 Bournemouth -0.11742424242424243
20 Aston Villa -0.13749999999999998

Chelsea 1-1 Stoke

Well, since we're starting with Chelsea let's look at the currrent runs:

Read more…

EPL 01-02 March 2016

EPL 01-02 March 2016

A midweek set of fixtures in the English Premier League to wrap our heads around. League leaders Leicester City only managed a draw at home to West Bromich Albion, but that was enough to see them extend their lead on their three closest challengers, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City, all of whom lost. Manchester United now climb to equal points with their Manchester rivals, albeit having played a game extra.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '01/03/2016', '02/03/2016')))
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Everton
Goals 1 3
Shots 14 10
SOT 5 7
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Southampton
Goals 2 0
Shots 9 6
SOT 4 1
Home Away
Team Leicester West Brom
Goals 2 2
Shots 22 11
SOT 5 3
Home Away
Team Norwich Chelsea
Goals 1 2
Shots 13 10
SOT 2 2
Home Away
Team Sunderland Crystal Palace
Goals 2 2
Shots 17 13
SOT 6 5
Home Away
Team Arsenal Swansea
Goals 1 2
Shots 18 11
SOT 4 2
Home Away
Team Liverpool Man City
Goals 3 0
Shots 11 4
SOT 7 2
Home Away
Team Man United Watford
Goals 1 0
Shots 14 13
SOT 3 3
Home Away
Team Stoke Newcastle
Goals 1 0
Shots 9 5
SOT 2 3
Home Away
Team West Ham Tottenham
Goals 1 0
Shots 14 9
SOT 3 2
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 57
2 Tottenham 54
3 Arsenal 51
4 Man City 47
- Man United 47
6 West Ham 46
7 Stoke 42
8 Liverpool 41
9 Southampton 40
10 Chelsea 39
11 Everton 38
12 Watford 37
13 West Brom 36
14 Crystal Palace 33
15 Bournemouth 32
16 Swansea 30
17 Norwich 24
- Sunderland 24
- Newcastle 24
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.22648922830132964
2 Man City 0.21322649171757052
3 Liverpool 0.1533793737588277
4 Arsenal 0.12403962292377443
5 Man United 0.07157245153315377
6 Leicester 0.064524560347286
7 Everton 0.05691369050786099
8 Chelsea 0.05637372989659675
9 Southampton 0.05595238872709857
10 West Ham 0.020741258977721357
11 Bournemouth -0.008045697712667582
12 Watford -0.0351624914473212
13 Crystal Palace -0.0796491679386289
14 Stoke -0.08088566078464887
15 Swansea -0.08288550096394873
16 Norwich -0.12800142585007415
17 Sunderland -0.14783092710399784
18 West Brom -0.15301554722806715
19 Aston Villa -0.17120282722996572
20 Newcastle -0.1916603954376402
Position Team PDO
1 Everton 0.10542432195975504
2 Leicester 0.10454545454545455
3 Man United 0.08048827007438486
4 West Ham 0.07980165289256202
5 Watford 0.06429535376903794
6 West Brom 0.05255516840882696
7 Stoke 0.051789473684210496
8 Arsenal 0.04620238900157761
9 Chelsea 0.043998087039693934
10 Sunderland 0.009473169539176152
11 Tottenham 0.0046173308032890215
12 Man City -0.002601040416166489
13 Southampton -0.0078515962036238
14 Crystal Palace -0.03385529940553861
15 Swansea -0.035951955851322825
16 Norwich -0.06818181818181818
17 Newcastle -0.0949921079064428
18 Liverpool -0.10082023239917981
19 Aston Villa -0.13058676654182272
20 Bournemouth -0.13295408370581063

Aston Villa 1-3 Everton

As I wrote last week, enough has been said about Aston Villa's terrible season. They certainly have been unfortunate to a degree, but it now seems clear that their place in the relegation zone, if not quite dead-last, is pretty justified. That said, again this week Villa managed to out-shoot their opponents, although there is likely some score-effects going on here, Everton were ahead from the 5th minute and played an hour of football with at least a two goal cushion.

So Everton are a pretty difficult team to nail down. Their team rating has them placed 7th for the entire season one above Chelsea and just one behind league leaders Leicester. Similarly they are placed 1st for PDO one place ahead of the league leaders. So it is very interesting that Leicester seem to have turned their luck into a league leading points tally, whilst Everton haven't seemed to manage that and have a league position that, if anything undervalues them.

Note as well that the middle of the table is pretty tight. In the team-ratings table we have just 5th to 9th is separated by just 0.02, and in the league table just 4 points separates 11th placed Everton from 7th placed Stoke. However, a difficulty in Everton realising something like 7th place, is the teams above them, Liverpool, Southampton and Chelsea all project upwards, so Everton may well have to look to catch Stoke and West Ham, just to finish 9th.

Read more…

EPL 27-28th February 2016

EPL 27-28th February 2016

Only 8 games this weekend and Manchester City sink 9 points behind leaders Leicester, although now we have to start qualifying all such statements with the fact that Manchester City have played one fewer game than everyone else bar Liverpool. Manchester City also managed to pick up some kind of trophy or something at the weekend.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '27/02/2016', '28/02/2016')))
Home Away
Team Leicester Norwich
Goals 1 0
Shots 13 9
SOT 3 1
Home Away
Team Southampton Chelsea
Goals 1 2
Shots 7 16
SOT 2 4
Home Away
Team Stoke Aston Villa
Goals 2 1
Shots 11 5
SOT 3 1
Home Away
Team Watford Bournemouth
Goals 0 0
Shots 14 11
SOT 1 3
Home Away
Team West Brom Crystal Palace
Goals 3 2
Shots 11 15
SOT 5 2
Home Away
Team West Ham Sunderland
Goals 1 0
Shots 9 13
SOT 3 4
Home Away
Team Tottenham Swansea
Goals 2 1
Shots 34 10
SOT 14 4
Home Away
Team Man United Arsenal
Goals 3 2
Shots 7 13
SOT 5 5
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 56
2 Tottenham 54
3 Arsenal 51
4 Man City 47
5 Man United 44
6 West Ham 43
7 Southampton 40
8 Stoke 39
9 Liverpool 38
10 Watford 37
11 Chelsea 36
12 Everton 35
- West Brom 35
14 Crystal Palace 32
15 Bournemouth 29
16 Swansea 27
17 Norwich 24
- Newcastle 24
19 Sunderland 23
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.23955953857081358
2 Man City 0.23638459957781202
3 Liverpool 0.14026653809433803
4 Arsenal 0.1260747487231492
5 Man United 0.06905509317288838
6 Southampton 0.06810321276058692
7 Leicester 0.05915796067491008
8 Chelsea 0.05622452190825179
9 Everton 0.05561406767290818
10 West Ham 0.014085728288286144
11 Bournemouth -0.018456573319753443
12 Watford -0.03146851466179693
13 Crystal Palace -0.08018565041057944
14 Swansea -0.08402388689992549
15 Stoke -0.08906208633497704
16 Norwich -0.13127243981231576
17 West Brom -0.15228259204352992
18 Sunderland -0.15760114310455756
19 Aston Villa -0.17460298611210157
20 Newcastle -0.18926507726470765
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.11479873427036574
2 Everton 0.09966937594710018
3 Watford 0.0772932022932023
4 West Ham 0.0755613720898195
5 Man United 0.07246963562753034
6 Arsenal 0.06052042858824919
7 West Brom 0.04519774011299432
8 Stoke 0.041336153710558765
9 Chelsea 0.03609521791339976
10 Sunderland 0.012001340931947713
11 Tottenham 0.010206786850477212
12 Man City 0.01018848700967906
13 Southampton 0.00354191263282172
14 Crystal Palace -0.03829278021539689
15 Swansea -0.05255949323745934
16 Norwich -0.06263736263736264
17 Newcastle -0.0847839135654262
18 Liverpool -0.11701734957548915
19 Aston Villa -0.125
20 Bournemouth -0.14482406935237124

Leicester City 1-0 Norwich

Norwich will be truly gutted not to have taken a point here, a point they so desperately needed. The Leicester juggernaut sort of continues to roll on. It's hard to believe that Arsenal, Tottenham, or Manchester City would have been reduced to just 3 shots on target whilst playing the majority of the game at 0-0 against Norwich. Still, dominating shots has not really been Leicester's stick this season and what they have done they have obviously done successfully. It's pretty easy to see that the Leicester doubters will look at this sort of win as clear evidence Leicester are going to struggle to win the league, whilst those bullish on Leicester will see this as the sort of win that champions make.

Norwich now winless in 7, Newcastle, Sunderland on 1, Aston Villa on 2. If that does not worry Norwich fans, then, well perhaps they're just not that worried about life in the Championship.

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EPL 13-14th February 2016

EPL 13-14th February 2016

The usual weekly look at the shot statistics behind the weekend's games in the English Premier League. This saw the league leaders end a difficult fixture spell with their first defeat which ended and undefeated run of 7. That has closed up the top four now separated by 6 points.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '13/02/2016', '14/02/2016')
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Stoke
Goals 1 3
Shots 11 11
SOT 2 6
Home Away
Team Chelsea Newcastle
Goals 5 1
Shots 15 10
SOT 5 4
Home Away
Team Crystal Palace Watford
Goals 1 2
Shots 14 10
SOT 7 3
Home Away
Team Everton West Brom
Goals 0 1
Shots 34 5
SOT 6 1
Home Away
Team Norwich West Ham
Goals 2 2
Shots 13 11
SOT 3 6
Home Away
Team Sunderland Man United
Goals 2 1
Shots 21 12
SOT 5 6
Home Away
Team Swansea Southampton
Goals 0 1
Shots 13 13
SOT 2 5
Home Away
Team Arsenal Leicester
Goals 2 1
Shots 24 7
SOT 6 3
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Liverpool
Goals 0 6
Shots 6 11
SOT 1 9
Home Away
Team Man City Tottenham
Goals 1 2
Shots 19 6
SOT 4 3
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 53
2 Arsenal 51
- Tottenham 51
4 Man City 47
5 Man United 41
6 Southampton 40
- West Ham 40
8 Liverpool 38
9 Stoke 36
- Watford 36
11 Everton 35
12 Chelsea 33
13 West Brom 32
- Crystal Palace 32
15 Bournemouth 28
16 Swansea 27
17 Norwich 24
- Newcastle 24
19 Sunderland 23
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.23638459957781202
2 Tottenham 0.22851213626249625
3 Liverpool 0.14026653809433803
4 Arsenal 0.13046253321224371
5 Southampton 0.08289344183124904
6 Man United 0.07389941484622846
7 Everton 0.05561406767290818
8 Leicester 0.053593823043520505
9 Chelsea 0.047000649355315796
10 West Ham 0.014125701909591629
11 Bournemouth -0.0163764109645701
12 Watford -0.034648448176929206
13 Swansea -0.06329781165757928
14 Crystal Palace -0.08169525485347501
15 Stoke -0.10138310712952954
16 Norwich -0.1274130554647753
17 Sunderland -0.16103078785503078
18 West Brom -0.1621823222826913
19 Aston Villa -0.17033030708091504
20 Newcastle -0.18926507726470765
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.11351186853317102
2 Everton 0.09966937594710018
3 Watford 0.07407407407407407
4 Arsenal 0.07371304791029559
5 Man United 0.06666666666666665
6 West Ham 0.06656923639020829
7 West Brom 0.03992740471869327
8 Stoke 0.03553719008264461
9 Chelsea 0.03376217743734666
10 Sunderland 0.026973026973027003
11 Tottenham 0.020060331825037747
12 Man City 0.01018848700967906
13 Southampton 0.009852216748768461
14 Crystal Palace -0.03857264231096008
15 Norwich -0.06036745406824151
16 Swansea -0.0742914979757085
17 Newcastle -0.0847839135654262
18 Liverpool -0.11701734957548915
19 Aston Villa -0.12703614457831325
20 Bournemouth -0.14126984126984127

Bournemouth 1-3 Stoke

This result surprised me. I think Bournemouth have genuinely been unfortunate for much of the season. This is backed up by the statistic rankings above, Bournemouth are currently 15th in the league just 4 points off the relegation zone. However their team rating is 11th, above Watford, and their PDO, is again back to rock bottom after briefly lending that position to Liverpool. It is certainly still possible that Bournemouth are relegated. My prediction is that there are enough poorer teams below, for Bournemouth to avoid that fate. I somewhat hope so, because either they have been rather unlucky or there is something systemic about they way they play that would be really interesting to observe for a second full season. Also, their matches are generally entertaining.

Read more…

EPL 6th-7th February 2016

EPL 6-7th February 2016

Leicester continue to win at the top of the table this time winning away from home with arguably their closest title rivals, who themselves have dropped to fourth place, albeit only a point behind 2nd.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '06/02/2016', '07/02/2016')
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Norwich
Goals 2 0
Shots 10 12
SOT 3 4
Home Away
Team Liverpool Sunderland
Goals 2 2
Shots 16 7
SOT 5 2
Home Away
Team Man City Leicester
Goals 1 3
Shots 22 14
SOT 4 7
Home Away
Team Newcastle West Brom
Goals 1 0
Shots 19 7
SOT 7 0
Home Away
Team Southampton West Ham
Goals 1 0
Shots 8 18
SOT 2 2
Home Away
Team Stoke Everton
Goals 0 3
Shots 11 14
SOT 3 6
Home Away
Team Swansea Crystal Palace
Goals 1 1
Shots 19 12
SOT 3 2
Home Away
Team Tottenham Watford
Goals 1 0
Shots 26 3
SOT 9 0
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Arsenal
Goals 0 2
Shots 17 10
SOT 4 5
Home Away
Team Chelsea Man United
Goals 1 1
Shots 16 17
SOT 5 7
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 53
2 Tottenham 48
- Arsenal 48
4 Man City 47
5 Man United 41
6 West Ham 39
7 Southampton 37
8 Everton 35
- Liverpool 35
10 Watford 33
- Stoke 33
12 Crystal Palace 32
13 Chelsea 30
14 West Brom 29
15 Bournemouth 28
16 Swansea 27
17 Newcastle 24
18 Norwich 23
19 Sunderland 20
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.24439721722889646
2 Man City 0.23934883186101397
3 Arsenal 0.11892156954189927
4 Liverpool 0.11790372912864908
5 Man United 0.09126485530226136
6 Southampton 0.08068393497172398
7 Leicester 0.0732797128665453
8 Everton 0.03817934055163824
9 Chelsea 0.029991428191271593
10 West Ham 0.015666371188515715
11 Bournemouth -0.008346162815690755
12 Watford -0.035893132231974934
13 Swansea -0.060670405388337116
14 Crystal Palace -0.08556647623187502
15 Stoke -0.1155426735898446
16 Norwich -0.13460521435422776
17 Aston Villa -0.14715674758120906
18 West Brom -0.14815862798573418
19 Sunderland -0.1787900006841753
20 Newcastle -0.17988417583715616
Position Team PDO
1 Everton 0.12608791048050905
2 Leicester 0.11842975206611567
3 Man United 0.08526249209361164
4 West Ham 0.07735461441213654
5 Arsenal 0.07506152584085313
6 Watford 0.05410183875530411
7 Stoke 0.02521008403361341
8 Man City 0.024273345701917137
9 Sunderland 0.017756128221244505
10 West Brom 0.015757575757575748
11 Tottenham 0.012704321087554649
12 Southampton 0.007120743034055743
13 Chelsea 0.0012077294685990392
14 Crystal Palace -0.0203738317757009
15 Newcastle -0.05928211791456878
16 Norwich -0.07485513441626296
17 Swansea -0.07526881720430106
18 Aston Villa -0.10092514718250634
19 Bournemouth -0.1405565084810368
20 Liverpool -0.15002513826043234

Aston Villa 2-0 Norwich

The plunge continues for Norwich who now enter the relegation zone. An excellent three points for Aston Villa who have certainly deserved more results like this. They were actually out-shot by Norwich both in total shots and in shots on target, but marginally so. In such cases it usually means either that the match was pretty close and could have been won by either team, but the victory cannot be said to be entirely undeserved. Alternatively a team takes an early lead and hence has less ambition than the team behind. In such cases the victory is probably well deserved. The goals here came just before and after half-time, so probably this result was somewhere between the two. First goal was likely very important.

But enough speculation, what that means for Norwich is that they are in definite trouble now. For both teams there are a lack of suitable alternative candidates for relagation. Both of course will be hopeful that Newcastle's recent bounce is a statistical blip rather than a genuine improvement perhaps on the back of over £28m spent. Other than that, Swansea seem good enough to keep up pace with the bottom three and thus avoid relegation, but Swansea could of course be on the receiving end of some not so great luck. Aston Villa have the additional problem of still being 8 points behind 17th, so even if Newcastle revert to pre-Christmas form, Aston Villa are still struggling to make up the 8 points, or 11 on Swansea.

Read more…

EPL 2nd-3rd February 2016

EPL 2nd-3rd February 2016

A round of mid-week games, plenty of interesting results as Leicester continue lead the league after a tricky home fixture against Liverpool.

In [2]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '02/02/2016', '04/02/2016')
Home Away
Team Arsenal Southampton
Goals 0 0
Shots 21 14
SOT 11 3
Home Away
Team Crystal Palace Bournemouth
Goals 1 2
Shots 14 8
SOT 3 4
Home Away
Team Leicester Liverpool
Goals 2 0
Shots 13 14
SOT 6 2
Home Away
Team Man United Stoke
Goals 3 0
Shots 15 10
SOT 5 0
Home Away
Team Norwich Tottenham
Goals 0 3
Shots 10 17
SOT 2 6
Home Away
Team Sunderland Man City
Goals 0 1
Shots 11 6
SOT 2 2
Home Away
Team West Brom Swansea
Goals 1 1
Shots 17 18
SOT 7 4
Home Away
Team West Ham Aston Villa
Goals 2 0
Shots 25 6
SOT 6 2
Home Away
Team Everton Newcastle
Goals 3 0
Shots 18 7
SOT 7 3
Home Away
Team Watford Chelsea
Goals 0 0
Shots 12 12
SOT 3 4
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 50
2 Man City 47
3 Tottenham 45
- Arsenal 45
5 Man United 40
6 West Ham 39
7 Southampton 34
- Liverpool 34
9 Stoke 33
- Watford 33
11 Everton 32
12 Crystal Palace 31
13 Chelsea 29
- West Brom 29
15 Bournemouth 28
16 Swansea 26
17 Norwich 23
18 Newcastle 21
19 Sunderland 19
20 Aston Villa 13
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.2558456585656961
2 Tottenham 0.22758742157933667
3 Arsenal 0.12138638879163716
4 Liverpool 0.11567555704949581
5 Man United 0.09561155805535647
6 Southampton 0.08803579229425912
7 Leicester 0.0757651539734471
8 Chelsea 0.03330344468908802
9 Everton 0.02622097173136405
10 West Ham 0.011737311477217065
11 Bournemouth -0.0067631715573161985
12 Watford -0.009179063501253512
13 Swansea -0.06948538938000491
14 Crystal Palace -0.08267609813206361
15 Stoke -0.10447483509349206
16 Norwich -0.13288891768800465
17 West Brom -0.13632251964933156
18 Aston Villa -0.15917210454960845
19 Sunderland -0.17896679906510082
20 Newcastle -0.2011378206098156
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.11513157894736842
2 Everton 0.11373356565816567
3 Man United 0.09796511627906973
4 West Ham 0.08779688779688782
5 Arsenal 0.06250921421200056
6 Stoke 0.04850868567682726
7 Watford 0.03881987577639756
8 Man City 0.037727704394371064
9 Tottenham 0.02172425590147109
10 West Brom 0.005695792880258899
11 Sunderland 0.004662004662004671
12 Southampton -0.0034423407917383853
13 Chelsea -0.004135203164329415
14 Crystal Palace -0.02374411302982732
15 Newcastle -0.04852154075633941
16 Norwich -0.052481110884214865
17 Swansea -0.0743413516609393
18 Aston Villa -0.12929475587703437
19 Bournemouth -0.13057989153108052
20 Liverpool -0.1417814113597246

Arsenal 0-0 Southampton

Arsenal clearly had a lot of this game and managing 11 shots on target against a Southampton side that generally do not allow many shots on target against them is comendable. I am sure they would rather the three points, as they now sit equal with Tottenham and 5 points adrift of the league leaders. Southampton sit 4th equal for repressing shots on target against as well as 7th for general shots, in both cases sitting ahead of their hosts.

Read more…