EPL 23-24th January 2016

Another interesting weekend in the premier league. Here is the usual look through the shot statistics underlying each of the matches.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '23/01/2016', '24/01/2016')

Crystal Palace 1-3 Tottenham

Tottenham really starting to look like possible title contenders, especially this week making up ground on both Arsenal and Manchester City. Crystal Palace ended nearly 500 minutes without a goal, but they still have a pretty desparate run of form, they now lead the league in both longest current winless run, with 6, and longest current losing run, with 4. Losing four or more consecutive games is non-trivial, it has happened 5 times so far this season, Aston Villa managed 7, Sunderland managed 5 and Norwich, Bournemouth, Watford and now Crystal Palace have managed 4. Crystal Palace have Bournemouth at home next Tuesday and will not wish to join Aston Villa and Sunderland in the greater than 4 consecutive losses club.

EPL 16-18th January 2016

Another look at some of the simple statistics underlying the matches in the English Premier league. A weekend that saw Manchester City claw back two points on Arsenal and Leicester who remain on top of the league separated only by goal difference and then only by a point to Manchester City.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '16/01/2016', '18/01/2016')

Aston Villa 1-1 Leicester

Aston Villa have not managed to out-shoot many teams this season, so to do so against (one of) the league leaders is possibly a sign of improvement. Which makes it a bit of shame that they are now further from safety than previously due to those closest to them having good weekends, notably Newcastle and Swansea.

Bournemouth 3-0 Norwich

Bournemouth continue to improve and that result sees them leapfrog Norwich into 15th. Again because of the good weekends for Newcastle and Swansea they are still quite far from a comfortable position. Norwich beginning to slide rather worryingly.

Chelsea 3-3 Everton

A very entertaining game with a bit of controversy at the end. However, it's hard to make the case that Chelsea didn't deserve a draw overall. On a non-stat related note, I don't have much love for John Terry, but I was surprised that no-one on MOTD mentioned that although his draw-saving goal was clearly off-side, it was a pretty good finish.

It's hard to really see Chelsea as relegation candidates, but it's hard not to comment on the fact that they are just 4 points from safety. However, they are equally just 5 points from 10th placed Southampton. Chelsea are currently 8th for team rating, and it does not seem entirely unlikely that they could end the season there. Whilst Southampton and Liverpool stand between Chelsea in 8th there is a trio of teams above 8th who could slip back in Crystal Palace, Stoke City and West Ham United.

Manchester City 4-0 Crystal Palace

The two Manchester teams managed 5 shots on target between them and scored all five of them. In truth though the sky blue half of Manchester were entirely on top here and were always going to win. Crystal Palace are having a tough time of it at the moment.

Newcastle 2-1 West Ham

A deserved victory for Newcastle, something I don't think we've said so far this season.

Southampton 3-0 West Brom

Interesting one, both teams had nine shots, but West Brom did not manage a single shot on target whilst Southampton managed 5. It is clear who deserved this one.

Tottenham 4-1 Sunderland

About as one-sided as it gets. Worrying times for Sunderland, who might have thought the 4-2 victory over Swansea could have represented a rise in form. Not on this evidence. Having said that Tottenham are one of the best teams in the league, so perhaps away to Tottenham is just not the kind of game relegation scrappers have much hope for.

Liverpool 0-1 Manchester United

Not much less one-side than the Tottenham, but in this case Liverpool lose. The big difference here is the shots on target, 4-1 is not that large an advantage.

Stoke 0-0 Arsenal

Bit of a slip up this for Arsenal and Stoke, if anything, deservered a win.

EPL 12-13th January 2016

The FA cup break behind us we're back to the Premier league and perhaps the biggest story is that the longest winless streak has finally come to an end with Aston Villa winning for the first time since they beat Bournemouth on the 8th of August on the opening day of the season.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '12/01/2016', '13/01/2016')

Aston Villa

Aston Villa deserved this victory, out-shooting their visitors Crystal Palace for both total shots and shots on target. However, they are still 7 points behind their nearest rivals and 8 points behind the first non-relegation position. They were not helped by Newcastle managing a point against Manchester United and Sunderland managing an away victory.

Newcastle

What a performance from Newcastle. This has been a pretty strange season with many expectations being thrown out the window. Newcastle have been pretty abject this season, even when winning they seem to have done so despite not being the better team, the most extreme example of this being the victory against Bournemouth. But this was a good performance and Newcastle likely deserved at least their point. Manchester United seem to have been pretty frugal with their shooting but also pretty efficient. This match was not so unusual for Manchester United this season, scoring three goals from 4 shots on target.

Bournemouth

Still somehow flirting with relegation. They are probably still better than than at least Villa, Sunderland and Newcastle, and that should probably keep them up. Their PDO is still comfortably the worst in the league. It may be some artefact of the way they are playing, but even if so their team rating still suggests they should be higher than 16th. However, their low points total so far will likely mean it is a nervy second half of the season, unless their luck strongly improves.

Chelsea

Remain unflattering. Giving up 6 shots on target at home to West Brom is not a great sign.

Liverpool and Arsenal

Great game. Despite being pretty well played here, Arsenal are still title contenders, obviously given that they are in equal first. Liverpool, continue to be very good against teams that generally seek to dominate possession, but if they wish to move up the league further they will need to somehow find ways to break down teams that are happy to give up possession. However, assuming that obstacle can be overcome, Liverpool can easily manage 5th this season, possibly even 4th if Leicester do capitulate, though I don't expect them to.

Mancester City and Everton

Great point for Everton, but Manchester City continue to look the best team in the league. A few draws here and there will concern them, but despite the current three-point deficit I think City have to be favourites to win the league.

Southampton and Watford

Two teams that have been pretty hard to predict this season, now just separated by two points. Southampton will not be pleased with their 12th place, but Watford are probably pretty happy with 10th. Southampton seem the most likely team in the bottom half to race up and contend for Europe, even including Everton.

Stoke and Norwich

Another two teams that have been quite hard to predict. Stoke still posting numbers that should see them quite a bit worse off than 7th, but this was a fairly comprehensive win.

Swansea and Sunderland

Alarm bells must be ringing, or ringing more loudly than before, at Swansea now. Now just a point ahead of the relegation zone and more importantly losing at home to a relegation rival. Albeit this was significantly affected by the first half red-card. There is no doubt that Sunderland are bad, but with some luck, or more rather a lack of luck for Swansea or Norwich, they could manage a pretty lucky escape.

Tottenham and Leicester

And still Leicester refuse to quietly recede from the spot-light. There is no doubt this was something of a steal. In fact, we should be more asking the question whether or not Tottenham are title contenders. Just seven points back, and they now have a team rating that is second best in the league. Clearly Manchester City are a better bet, but were I a Tottenham fan I would not be throwing in the towel just yet.

EPL 2-3rd January 2016

Weekly look at some of the statistics underlying the games in the English Premier League.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '02/01/2016', '03/01/2016')

Sunderland 3-1 Aston Villa

This may well have been the result that condemns Aston Villa to life outside of the premier league for the first time since it started. In his half season review James Yorke suggested that only Aston Villa can be reliably discarded and I say much against that. For much of December I've stated that Aston Villa are likely a bad but not quite relegation standard team that have had some bad luck and unfortunately are not quite good enough to avoid relegation having had that bad luck even if it does not continue into the new year. This result, and performance, is evidence that Aston Villa are more like a relegation team in any case. That Sunderland are bad is not much in question and they have pretty well out-played, or at least out-shot Aston Villa here.

In general team rating as the bottom three on points, Newcastle, Sunderland, and Aston Villa as the bottom three so their positions seem deserving, if perhaps Newcastle should not even be as high as 18th. As pointed out above, perhaps only Aston Villa can be confidently condemned at this point, but surely Sunderland and Newcastle are the favourites to join them, and not just because of their current league positions.

English Premier League 19-21st December

Another weekly look at the shot statistics from the English Premier League.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '19/12/2015', '21/12/2015')

Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland

This was a pretty kind game for Chelsea to have without a manager. Sunderland are showing some small signs of improvement, but they are small and they remain 18th for team rating. As for Chelsea, well, we'll have to wait and see what happens under Hiddink. Up to 10th in team rating and finally a positive score for team rating. It is worth noting that there is not much between the mid-table sides, but Chelsea have been hovering just below 10th for a while:

EPL 12-14th December

A great weekend in the premier league, which saw the meeting between the two sides that the public continues to believe will eventually revert back to last season's form. Leicester flying high at the top of the table are expected to wane at least some of they way down the league table whilst the champions Chelsea are expected to start pulling together a string of victories to propel them up the league towards some semblance of at least competing for a champions' league spot.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
weekend_matches = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '12/12/2015', '14/12/2015')
league_analysis.display_given_matches(weekend_matches)
pairs = [(stats.teamname, stats.points) for stats in epl.team_stats.values()]
league_analysis.display_ranked_table(['Team', 'Points'], pairs)

Bournemouth 2-1 Manchester United

Two of the more statistically interesting teams in the league. For a while stat watchers have been expecting Bournemouth to improve results since their underlying performances looked quite decent whilst their results were awful. Manchester United continued to have pretty lukewarm shots and are generally playing "low-event" football. I'd really like to spend a full post talking about why I think low-event football for a generally superior team is a poor strategy but for the time being Manchester United have appeared to some to be riding their luck. Whether they are really riding their luck or simply providing an excellent case study is a topic to be explored. For the interested a good couple of statsbomb articles:

EPL 5th-7th December

Our weekly brief look into the statistics that have been behind the weekend's games in the English Premier League.

%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
weekend_matches = league_analysis.get_matches(epl, '05/12/2015', '07/12/2015')
league_analysis.display_given_matches(weekend_matches)
pairs = [(stats.teamname, stats.points) for stats in epl.team_stats.values()]
league_analysis.display_ranked_table(['Team', 'Points'], pairs)

Arsenal 3-1 Sunderland

So we have a relatively straightforward win for Arsenal. Sunderland though are showing signs of improvement. Here is how Sunderland's team rating has changed over the course of the season:

after_game_no_dicts = league_analysis.collect_after_game_dicts(epl, '01/08/2015', '09/12/2015')
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'team_rating', rankings=False, 
                                    teams=['Sunderland', 'Aston Villa', 'Newcastle', 'West Brom', 'Stoke'])

	Home	Away
Team	Crystal Palace	Tottenham
Goals	1	3
Shots	11	24
SOT	3	11

	Home	Away
Team	Leicester	Stoke
Goals	3	0
Shots	15	3
SOT	5	2

	Home	Away
Team	Man United	Southampton
Goals	0	1
Shots	8	7
SOT	1	2

	Home	Away
Team	Norwich	Liverpool
Goals	4	5
Shots	6	13
SOT	5	7

	Home	Away
Team	Watford	Newcastle
Goals	2	1
Shots	13	11
SOT	5	2

EPL 23-24th January 2016