EPL 19-21st December 2015
English Premier League 19-21st December
Another weekly look at the shot statistics from the English Premier League.
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '19/12/2015', '21/12/2015')
Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland
This was a pretty kind game for Chelsea to have without a manager. Sunderland are showing some small signs of improvement, but they are small and they remain 18th for team rating. As for Chelsea, well, we'll have to wait and see what happens under Hiddink. Up to 10th in team rating and finally a positive score for team rating. It is worth noting that there is not much between the mid-table sides, but Chelsea have been hovering just below 10th for a while:
after_game_no_dicts = league_analysis.collect_after_game_dicts(epl, '01/08/2015', '21/12/2015')
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'team_rating', rankings=True,
teams=['Chelsea', 'Bournemouth', 'Everton', 'Watford'])
Everton 2-3 Leicester
Well, Leicester seemingly still riding their luck somewhat. However this was a close game that could have been won by either team. Before Everton bemoan losing despite having more shots, they should consider that they themselves now top the PDO table and Leicester have a better team rating.
Manchester United 1-2 Norwich
One of those strange games in which one team has more shots but fewer shots on target. It is arguable as to the better team here, but one thing is clear, we would expect a Manchester United team at home to simply dominate a Norwich team and that did not happen. Ignoring shots on target, 11 shots to 6 is a decent out-shooting performance for a home team, but not one that is behind in the game.
Newcastle 1-1 Aston Villa
Battle of those at the bottom. Villa really needed a win here. Newcastle were again out-shot at home and this time by the team propping up the table. Albeit Villa are probably a little unlucky to be that far behind. Newcastle and Sunderland continue look like the worst two teams in the league and if their luck does not hold can consider it likely they are relegated. Villa are probably a good enough team to just avoid relegation if they had amassed something like 18th placed Swansea's 15 points. As it stands they have just 7 to their name. So I suspect they are not quite good enough to get themselves out of the position they find themselves in, and may well find they are relegated with a bit of a hard-luck story to accompany them into the Championship.
In this respect Aston Villa are the sort of mirror image of Leicester. Leicester are good team this season, but probably not quite a top four team in terms of ability. However the points they have amassed so far may mean that Leicester make the top four. In other words Leicester are not a good enough team to make the top four on merit, but may be good enough to make the top four with a bit of luck and they've already had the good luck they just need to avoid a lot of bad luck (and injuries) in the second half of the season. Similarly Aston Villa are probably a good enough side to avoid relegation on merit, but not with a dose of bad luck and they've already had the bad luck, so they probably need a balancing dose of good fortune in the second half of the season to remain in the league.
Southampton 0-2 Tottenham
Tottenham continue to look pretty decent this season. With Chelsea's problems effectively creating an extra Champions' league spot Tottenham will see this as a huge missed opportunity if they fail to make the top four. Although in fairness currently Leicester are taking up that spare spot. Still, for my money Tottenham are projecting better than Manchester United who are second in the league for PDO.
Stoke 1-2 Crystal Palace
Strangely I think Stoke will be pretty happy about this. They have not dominated many teams this season. Stoke are still only 16th for team rating but they appear to be improving. Okay so they probably looked upon this game as a potential three points, still though if they create this many chances when behind they won't lose that many similar games.
Of course they probably won't be as happy as Crystal Palace fans up to 4th equal on points. Their 29 points so far is an excellent total. Strange that their team rating is all the way down in 13th whilst their PDO is not amazingly high in 8th.
West Brom 1-2 Bournemouth
That's three games and nine points for Bournemouth, two of those games away from home. Stuck on just 10 points 3 games ago Bournemouth fans must have been fearing a fate similar to Aston Villa's. Things look significantly rosier now.
Swansea 0-0 West Ham
Well Swansea are in need of something and a goal here to snatch a victory would have been very handy. With 21 shots they may feel a little aggrieved not to take all three points. But with shots on target at 2-2 it's not that surprising that this game ended 0-0. Swansea now in the relegation zone and whilst they must be worrying, I suspect they have enough ability to extract themselves from the relegation zone. Swansea are a bit similar to Norwich and West Brom. In another season they may well have been relegated, but this season, if they avoid some bad luck, they are likely rescued by Newcastle, Sunderland and Aston Villa.
Watford 3-0 Liverpool
On the face of it, it looks like a pretty bad defeat for Liverpool. More optimistically neither team dominated this game and Watford were a bit fortunate to score early on. However Liverpool will be worried that Watford managed to contain them so well. Still, Liverpool are again the most unlucky team in the league, having been overtaken by Bournemouth for a while, a team who have reaped some deserved rewards recently:
league_analysis.plot_changing_stats(epl, after_game_no_dicts, 'pdo', rankings=True,
teams=['Bournemouth', 'Liverpool', 'Swansea', 'Southampton'])
Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
Not the top of the table clash since Leicester were comfortably top of the table regardless of who won this game. Arsenal will be delighted whilst Manchester City will feel aggrieved not to have taken back a point. Costly second goal to concede in the end. Manchester City managed to constrain Arsenal to half their usual shots whilst taking almost double what Arsenal usually allow. Although the shots on target numbers are certainly more sobering for Manchester City fans and the total shots numbers may reflect more Arsenal being in the lead for the majority of the game. Still Arsenal will be more pleased with the results than the entirely non-obvious implications of the teams' respective match performances.
epl.compare_game_against_opponents('Arsenal', 'Man City', '21/12/15')
Generally it looks like Leicester will regress at least a bit and that probably the league title will come down to these two. As to which might prevail I'd say it was pretty neck-and-neck at the moment. If pushed, I'd suggest a slight edge for Manchester City, but, as they have been since the start of the season, Arsenal really are genunine title contenders this season.
Thanks again for reading!
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