EPL 01-02 March 2016

EPL 01-02 March 2016

A midweek set of fixtures in the English Premier League to wrap our heads around. League leaders Leicester City only managed a draw at home to West Bromich Albion, but that was enough to see them extend their lead on their three closest challengers, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City, all of whom lost. Manchester United now climb to equal points with their Manchester rivals, albeit having played a game extra.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '01/03/2016', '02/03/2016')))
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Everton
Goals 1 3
Shots 14 10
SOT 5 7
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Southampton
Goals 2 0
Shots 9 6
SOT 4 1
Home Away
Team Leicester West Brom
Goals 2 2
Shots 22 11
SOT 5 3
Home Away
Team Norwich Chelsea
Goals 1 2
Shots 13 10
SOT 2 2
Home Away
Team Sunderland Crystal Palace
Goals 2 2
Shots 17 13
SOT 6 5
Home Away
Team Arsenal Swansea
Goals 1 2
Shots 18 11
SOT 4 2
Home Away
Team Liverpool Man City
Goals 3 0
Shots 11 4
SOT 7 2
Home Away
Team Man United Watford
Goals 1 0
Shots 14 13
SOT 3 3
Home Away
Team Stoke Newcastle
Goals 1 0
Shots 9 5
SOT 2 3
Home Away
Team West Ham Tottenham
Goals 1 0
Shots 14 9
SOT 3 2
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 57
2 Tottenham 54
3 Arsenal 51
4 Man City 47
- Man United 47
6 West Ham 46
7 Stoke 42
8 Liverpool 41
9 Southampton 40
10 Chelsea 39
11 Everton 38
12 Watford 37
13 West Brom 36
14 Crystal Palace 33
15 Bournemouth 32
16 Swansea 30
17 Norwich 24
- Sunderland 24
- Newcastle 24
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.22648922830132964
2 Man City 0.21322649171757052
3 Liverpool 0.1533793737588277
4 Arsenal 0.12403962292377443
5 Man United 0.07157245153315377
6 Leicester 0.064524560347286
7 Everton 0.05691369050786099
8 Chelsea 0.05637372989659675
9 Southampton 0.05595238872709857
10 West Ham 0.020741258977721357
11 Bournemouth -0.008045697712667582
12 Watford -0.0351624914473212
13 Crystal Palace -0.0796491679386289
14 Stoke -0.08088566078464887
15 Swansea -0.08288550096394873
16 Norwich -0.12800142585007415
17 Sunderland -0.14783092710399784
18 West Brom -0.15301554722806715
19 Aston Villa -0.17120282722996572
20 Newcastle -0.1916603954376402
Position Team PDO
1 Everton 0.10542432195975504
2 Leicester 0.10454545454545455
3 Man United 0.08048827007438486
4 West Ham 0.07980165289256202
5 Watford 0.06429535376903794
6 West Brom 0.05255516840882696
7 Stoke 0.051789473684210496
8 Arsenal 0.04620238900157761
9 Chelsea 0.043998087039693934
10 Sunderland 0.009473169539176152
11 Tottenham 0.0046173308032890215
12 Man City -0.002601040416166489
13 Southampton -0.0078515962036238
14 Crystal Palace -0.03385529940553861
15 Swansea -0.035951955851322825
16 Norwich -0.06818181818181818
17 Newcastle -0.0949921079064428
18 Liverpool -0.10082023239917981
19 Aston Villa -0.13058676654182272
20 Bournemouth -0.13295408370581063

Aston Villa 1-3 Everton

As I wrote last week, enough has been said about Aston Villa's terrible season. They certainly have been unfortunate to a degree, but it now seems clear that their place in the relegation zone, if not quite dead-last, is pretty justified. That said, again this week Villa managed to out-shoot their opponents, although there is likely some score-effects going on here, Everton were ahead from the 5th minute and played an hour of football with at least a two goal cushion.

So Everton are a pretty difficult team to nail down. Their team rating has them placed 7th for the entire season one above Chelsea and just one behind league leaders Leicester. Similarly they are placed 1st for PDO one place ahead of the league leaders. So it is very interesting that Leicester seem to have turned their luck into a league leading points tally, whilst Everton haven't seemed to manage that and have a league position that, if anything undervalues them.

Note as well that the middle of the table is pretty tight. In the team-ratings table we have just 5th to 9th is separated by just 0.02, and in the league table just 4 points separates 11th placed Everton from 7th placed Stoke. However, a difficulty in Everton realising something like 7th place, is the teams above them, Liverpool, Southampton and Chelsea all project upwards, so Everton may well have to look to catch Stoke and West Ham, just to finish 9th.

Bournemouth 2-0 Southampton

This certainly did Bournemouth some good, and they somewhat deserved it. I think it's time to quite confidently predict Bournemouth to be in the premier league next season, they are eight points above the relegation zone, playing well enough, and the points are moving in the right direction.

Leicester City 2-2 West Brom

A lot has been said about Leicester's supposed inability to break down teams that are prepared to sit back and defend. Whatever the scoreline, two goals against West Brom is at least something of an answer to this. Especially given that West Brom took the lead only to find themselves behind at the half-time interval. Not only this, but Leicester in total had 22 shots against West Brom's 11. This looks like the sort of performance of a top club, one that could win the title.

Norwich City 1-2 Chelsea

So Chelsea's run continues, that is now unbeaten in 12 games. Norwich also extend their unwanted run of 8 games without a win.

In [2]:
league_analysis.display_current_runs(epl)
Position Team Winning Run
1 Chelsea 3
- Stoke 3
3 Man United 2
- Liverpool 2
- West Ham 2
6 Everton 1
- Bournemouth 1
- Swansea 1
9 Crystal Palace 0
- Norwich 0
- Sunderland 0
- Arsenal 0
- Tottenham 0
- Man City 0
- Aston Villa 0
- Watford 0
- Newcastle 0
- Leicester 0
- Southampton 0
- West Brom 0
Position Team Unbeaten Run
1 Chelsea 12
2 Liverpool 3
- Stoke 3
- West Ham 3
- West Brom 3
6 Man United 2
- Leicester 2
- Bournemouth 2
9 Crystal Palace 1
- Sunderland 1
- Everton 1
- Swansea 1
13 Norwich 0
- Arsenal 0
- Tottenham 0
- Man City 0
- Aston Villa 0
- Watford 0
- Newcastle 0
- Southampton 0
Position Team Winless
1 Crystal Palace 11
2 Norwich 8
3 Man City 3
- Aston Villa 3
5 Sunderland 2
- Arsenal 2
- Watford 2
- Newcastle 2
- Southampton 2
10 Tottenham 1
- Leicester 1
- West Brom 1
13 Chelsea 0
- Man United 0
- Everton 0
- Liverpool 0
- Stoke 0
- West Ham 0
- Bournemouth 0
- Swansea 0
Position Team Losing
1 Man City 3
- Aston Villa 3
3 Norwich 2
- Arsenal 2
- Newcastle 2
- Southampton 2
7 Tottenham 1
- Watford 1
9 Crystal Palace 0
- Chelsea 0
- Sunderland 0
- Man United 0
- Everton 0
- Liverpool 0
- Stoke 0
- West Ham 0
- Leicester 0
- Bournemouth 0
- Swansea 0
- West Brom 0

Sunderland 2-2 Crystal Palace

But worse than Norwich's run is Crystal Palace's run without a win. Sunderland again showing signs of life, if not quite the ability to survive the drop. Here are the stats for the last ten games, note that Sunderland are up into 13th for team rating and there is a fairly significant gap between themselves and fellow strugglers Swansea in 15th.

Crystal Palace's woes are at least somewhat brought upon themselves given that they are ranked 19th for team rating in the last ten games. Palace and Villa both have their poor performances exacerbated by a poor PDO. However, it is important to note that PDO is affected by game state, just as the league leaders will generally have a good PDO, because they are a good team and hence will take the lead often, so too will the bottom placed teams necessarily have a poor PDO, being a poor team means they are more likely to concede early on.

It is the subject of ongoing research exactly how much we can learn from the PDO. Top teams will have a good PDO. How much of that is because their good PDO has pushed them higher up the table, and how much of it is because they are already a good team and hence more likely to often take the lead.

However you look at it, Crystal Palace are being dragged into a relegation battle from a position that 12 games ago made relegation inconceviable. It is now just unlikely.

In [3]:
stats = league_analysis.last_x_game_stats(epl, 10)
display(HTML(league_analysis.header_stat_tables(epl, stats=stats)))
Position Team Points
1 Tottenham 22
2 Chelsea 20
- West Ham 20
4 Leicester 19
5 Man United 18
6 Liverpool 17
7 Stoke 16
- Southampton 16
- West Brom 16
10 Arsenal 15
- Man City 15
- Everton 15
13 Sunderland 12
- Bournemouth 12
- Swansea 12
16 Aston Villa 8
- Watford 8
18 Norwich 7
- Newcastle 7
20 Crystal Palace 3
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.27445948118427876
2 Liverpool 0.21549490436967744
3 Man City 0.15458822735557123
4 Chelsea 0.1425508829520591
5 Everton 0.1379160429049595
6 West Ham 0.07386407778194513
7 Arsenal 0.06344329232866071
8 Leicester 0.058601243933234896
9 Man United 0.03746868519402988
10 Southampton -0.0018393704210419894
11 Bournemouth -0.01700933565933964
12 Stoke -0.053828191500053545
13 Sunderland -0.05585266148188036
14 West Brom -0.09679479036136257
15 Swansea -0.12745234230892577
16 Newcastle -0.134650982369816
17 Norwich -0.15185609908089936
18 Watford -0.16320361457743962
19 Crystal Palace -0.17443919741262254
20 Aston Villa -0.1840948032469414
Position Team PDO
1 Chelsea 0.19523809523809527
2 Leicester 0.1515151515151515
3 Man United 0.10472972972972971
4 West Ham 0.09782608695652173
5 Everton 0.07528641571194761
6 West Brom 0.07500000000000001
7 Sunderland 0.06127450980392157
8 Southampton 0.05990783410138248
9 Swansea 0.05822328931572629
10 Arsenal 0.038033395176252344
11 Liverpool 0.03542510121457493
12 Watford 0.02828282828282827
13 Man City 0.024512884978001248
14 Norwich -0.04911433172302737
15 Bournemouth -0.05405405405405406
16 Tottenham -0.06862745098039214
17 Stoke -0.07394957983193279
18 Aston Villa -0.18888888888888888
19 Crystal Palace -0.20652173913043476
20 Newcastle -0.2572062084257206

Arsenal 1-2 Swansea

What a win for Swansea. That has created a bit of gap at the bottom of the table, with Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich all on 24 points, now 6 adrift of Swansea. Arsenal really didn't need that. A win here would have placed them on 54 points equal with Tottenham, right before the two play-off each other this weekend, at White Hart Lane. In this particular game 18 shots is pretty decent, but only 4 on target. That is a bit worrying for Arsenal fans. To lose this game with Swansea scoring with both their shots on target was perhaps a bit unfortunate, but a draw would have been perfectly reasonable.

Leicester meanwhile continue a rather gentler run of Watford, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace, this could be very exciting, it is entirely conceivable that the doubters are correct and, despite the 22(11) shots against West Brom, Leicester struggle to break down teams willing to defend, in which case they may take only, say 3 points from those fixtures. But it is also pretty conceivable that Leicester take all nine of those points.

In [5]:
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Leicester', 'Tottenham', 'Arsenal', 'Man City', 'Man United' ])
Leicester Tottenham Arsenal Man City Man United
Watford (A) Arsenal (H) Tottenham (A) Aston Villa (H) West Brom (A)
Newcastle (H) Aston Villa (A) West Brom (H) Norwich (A) Crystal Palace (H)
Crystal Palace (A) Bournemouth (H) Everton (A) Man United (H) Man City (A)
Southampton (H) Liverpool (A) Watford (H) Bournemouth (A) Everton (H)
Sunderland (A) Man United (H) West Ham (A) West Brom (H) Tottenham (A)
West Ham (H) Stoke (A) Crystal Palace (H) Chelsea (A) Aston Villa (H)
Swansea (H) West Brom (H) Sunderland (A) Stoke (H) West Ham (A)
Man United (A) Chelsea (A) Norwich (H) Southampton (A) Leicester (H)
Everton (H) Southampton (H) Man City (A) Arsenal (H) Norwich (A)
Chelsea (A) Newcastle (A) Aston Villa (H) Swansea (A) Bournemouth (H)

Liverpool 3-0 Manchester City

Okay so 3-0 was probably, like their win at the Etihad, a bit flattering, but Liverpool again deserved this win. Generally Liverpool are clearly a top four team this season and have been on the end of a rather unflattering PDO which is still 18th for the entire season. Recently though they have a positive PDO, which has saw them shoot up the league to 8th, from results worthy of 6th place in the last ten games. Liverpool may not have had a successful season, but they have a team rating of 3rd, and more recently 2nd. Expect better from Liverpool next season.

Are Manchester City gone as title contenders? Well, probably not. Still just 10 points off the lead, which despite how long Leicester have kept up their form is still regarded with some suspicion. Tottenham then are just 7 points ahead, and City have a game in hand, which, if won would see them just 4 points behind. Given that Tottenham have Arsenal at the weekend, that could be further reduced. I guess there will be clamour for Manchester City to be written off, but imagine this scenario; Arsenal beat Tottenham, City beat Villa and (whenever it is rearranged for) Newcastle. Watford beat Leicester City, this would leave the league at Leicester 57, Tottenham 54, Arsenal 54, Manchester City 53. Now consider how unlikely that scenario is? Even a draw between Tottenham and Arsenal would mean Leicester 57, Tottenham 55, City 53, Arsenal 52. Not really so terrible?

Manchester United 1-0 Watford

Good win for Manchester United, good effort from Watford. Could Manchester United win the title? Well I did include them in the fixture lists above. Would need to win more or less every game from here on in. Not entirely impossible. Even without this, as long as they win against all three of Manchester City, Tottenham, and Leicester, thus denying them points, it seems possible to me. If unlikely.

Watford, are almost certainly safe from the drop. But it will worry them that they have 8 points from the last 10 games, the same as Aston Villa.

Stoke City 1-0 Newcastle

I can see where Steve Maclaren thinks Newcastle were unfortunate. They arguably deserved a point here. Despite feeling that Sunderland are on a bit of an uptick, I have a feeling Newcastle are the more likely to avoid relegation.

West Ham 1-0 Tottenham

West Ham and Bournemouth have a nack for beating the best teams in the league. West Ham are joint with Chelsea in 2nd place for the last ten games. Think about this, I just half-heartedly argued that Manchester United were still in with a slim chance of winning the title, West Ham are but one point further back. That's pretty incredible. They still have a pretty middling team rating, 10th in the league. This is pretty good for West Ham, and they can be (already) pleased with a good season, but I doubt they are quite as good as their current 6th place. I for one have been guilty of suggesting West Ham would regress, so far it hasn't happened.

Tottenham, still favourites in my opinion.

Thanks for reading.

Comments

Comments powered by Disqus