EPL 2-3rd April 2016

EPL 2nd-3rd of April 2016

I'm on holiday this week so a more brief than usual look at the the English Premier League in shot statistics. This was the week in which Leicester's lead at the top increased to 7 points after Tottenham failed to win at Anfield and Newcastle took a big step towards the Championship.

In [1]:
%matplotlib inline
import league_analysis
from IPython.display import display, HTML
epl = league_analysis.epl
display(HTML(league_analysis.blog_weekly_header(epl, '02/04/2016', '03/04/2016')))
Home Away
Team Arsenal Watford
Goals 4 0
Shots 19 6
SOT 12 2
Home Away
Team Aston Villa Chelsea
Goals 0 4
Shots 15 11
SOT 4 8
Home Away
Team Bournemouth Man City
Goals 0 4
Shots 11 15
SOT 2 7
Home Away
Team Liverpool Tottenham
Goals 1 1
Shots 15 18
SOT 7 5
Home Away
Team Norwich Newcastle
Goals 3 2
Shots 13 13
SOT 6 5
Home Away
Team Stoke Swansea
Goals 2 2
Shots 12 12
SOT 5 3
Home Away
Team Sunderland West Brom
Goals 0 0
Shots 22 3
SOT 7 0
Home Away
Team West Ham Crystal Palace
Goals 2 2
Shots 18 12
SOT 6 5
Home Away
Team Leicester Southampton
Goals 1 0
Shots 11 10
SOT 4 2
Home Away
Team Man United Everton
Goals 1 0
Shots 10 7
SOT 2 1
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 69
2 Tottenham 62
3 Arsenal 58
4 Man City 54
5 Man United 53
6 West Ham 51
7 Stoke 47
- Southampton 47
9 Liverpool 45
10 Chelsea 44
11 West Brom 40
12 Bournemouth 38
- Everton 38
14 Swansea 37
- Watford 37
16 Crystal Palace 34
17 Norwich 31
18 Sunderland 27
19 Newcastle 25
20 Aston Villa 16
Position Team Team Rating
1 Man City 0.24656122483025536
2 Tottenham 0.2401497571729931
3 Liverpool 0.1382427878387203
4 Arsenal 0.1284861762834652
5 Leicester 0.06962835691506863
6 Chelsea 0.0673964512855661
7 Man United 0.05510181920276379
8 Southampton 0.05111347407372008
9 Everton 0.035865889675056425
10 West Ham 0.02009568621742503
11 Bournemouth -0.0325774629243777
12 Watford -0.0686499115905561
13 Swansea -0.07024033325097351
14 Stoke -0.07101601669186798
15 Crystal Palace -0.08237108126504067
16 Norwich -0.12288480140992927
17 Sunderland -0.12903373750077157
18 West Brom -0.15381930348377384
19 Newcastle -0.17529144635371352
20 Aston Villa -0.20285708400383246
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.1200512992082079
2 Man United 0.08299682103273476
3 West Ham 0.07888337217549901
4 Arsenal 0.07331794780756257
5 West Brom 0.06853417899929531
6 Everton 0.06569343065693428
7 Chelsea 0.05541653633614846
8 Stoke 0.045856798069187465
9 Watford 0.03803689721490133
10 Man City 0.014146772767462401
11 Tottenham 0.006365849091930331
12 Southampton 0.005066051045273801
13 Sunderland -0.0012422360248446895
14 Swansea -0.014180672268907568
15 Crystal Palace -0.043394575678040226
16 Norwich -0.05180256636567315
17 Liverpool -0.10325948561242682
18 Newcastle -0.11611917494270435
19 Bournemouth -0.11701734957548915
20 Aston Villa -0.160603371783496

Matches

Three games ended 4-0 and two of them were wins for the away teams. All were relatively predictable wins though. Of the three Aston Villa might be the most aggrieved to have lost by such a wide margin after managing 15 shots.

I expected Southampton to take something from their game against the league leaders and was a touch surprised Leicester actually out-shot Southampton, though it was clearly quite a close game. Tottenham's game against Liverpool was a pretty good game with both teams having chances to win the match. Probably a draw was about deserved even if it was not really what Tottenham needed.

Sunderland had the most shots of the week, but still didn't get the win they needed. Manchester United did get the win they were after, again despite only 2 shots on target.

The Title

Obviously this looks more likely to go to Leicester. I still think Leicester have three pretty challenging games to end with, so if Tottenham can be within 5 points with 3 games to go they still have a pretty good shot at the title.

Here are the remaining matches:

In [2]:
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Leicester', 'Tottenham'])
Leicester Tottenham
Sunderland (A) Man United (H)
West Ham (H) Stoke (A)
Swansea (H) West Brom (H)
Man United (A) Chelsea (A)
Everton (H) Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A) Newcastle (A)

It is really hard to tell, because Leicester could easily fail to win at both Sunderland and West Ham, as well as both Manchester United and Chelsea, so that would be at least 8 points dropped and they would still need to face Everton and Swansea at home. Of course Tottenham don't exactly have it easy next week.

But I'm still going with Tottenham.

Champions' League

I think City have a gentle enough run-in to secure the 4th spot in the Champions' league. However, some bad luck could de-rail them. They also have a game in hand against Newcastle.

Payet has to be a good shout for player of the season.

In [3]:
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Man City', 'Man United', 'West Ham'])
Man City Man United West Ham
West Brom (H) Tottenham (A) Arsenal (H)
Chelsea (A) Aston Villa (H) Leicester (A)
Newcastle (A) Crystal Palace (H) Watford (H)
Stoke (H) Leicester (H) West Brom (A)
Southampton (A) Norwich (A) Swansea (H)
Arsenal (H) West Ham (A) Man United (H)
Swansea (A) Bournemouth (H) Stoke (A)

Relegation

I was fairly confident Newcastle would get an away win at Carrow Road to help their bid to beat relegation but the opposite happened and now it is Norwich who look the most likely to survive.

In [4]:
league_analysis.compare_fixtures(epl, ['Newcastle', 'Sunderland', 'Norwich', 'Crystal Palace', 'Swansea'])
Newcastle Sunderland Norwich Crystal Palace Swansea
Southampton (A) Leicester (H) Crystal Palace (A) Norwich (H) Chelsea (H)
Swansea (H) Norwich (A) Sunderland (H) Everton (H) Newcastle (A)
Man City (H) Arsenal (H) Arsenal (A) Arsenal (A) Leicester (A)
Liverpool (A) Stoke (A) Man United (H) Man United (A) Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (H) Chelsea (H) Watford (H) Newcastle (A) West Ham (A)
Aston Villa (A) Everton (H) Everton (A) Stoke (H) Man City (H)

Swansea are now level on points with Watford who have not really been considered for relegation for quite some time. However Swansea are included here simply due to their remaining fixtures. Other than against Newcastle they could manage to lose all their remaining games. If they were to lose to Newcastle would 37 points be enough? Maybe.

Newcastle are now 6 points shy of Norwich, who play Crystal Palace next week. Norwich play Crystal Palace and then Sunderland, so in the next two weeks Norwich could all but secure their place or put themselves in a very precarious position.

Crystal Palace will be looking to end their winless run.

In [5]:
league_analysis.display_current_runs(epl)
Position Team Winning Run
1 Leicester 4
2 Arsenal 2
- Man United 2
- Norwich 2
5 Chelsea 1
- Man City 1
7 Aston Villa 0
- West Ham 0
- Stoke 0
- Bournemouth 0
- Newcastle 0
- West Brom 0
- Liverpool 0
- Swansea 0
- Watford 0
- Everton 0
- Sunderland 0
- Southampton 0
- Crystal Palace 0
- Tottenham 0
Position Team Unbeaten Run
1 Chelsea 15
2 Leicester 6
- West Ham 6
4 Sunderland 4
- Tottenham 4
6 Arsenal 3
- Norwich 3
8 Stoke 2
- Man United 2
- Swansea 2
11 West Brom 1
- Man City 1
- Liverpool 1
- Crystal Palace 1
15 Aston Villa 0
- Bournemouth 0
- Newcastle 0
- Watford 0
- Everton 0
- Southampton 0
Position Team Winless
1 Crystal Palace 14
2 Aston Villa 7
3 Newcastle 6
4 Watford 5
- Sunderland 5
6 Everton 3
7 West Ham 2
- Bournemouth 2
- West Brom 2
- Liverpool 2
11 Stoke 1
- Swansea 1
- Southampton 1
- Tottenham 1
15 Leicester 0
- Chelsea 0
- Man City 0
- Arsenal 0
- Man United 0
- Norwich 0
Position Team Losing
1 Aston Villa 7
2 Watford 4
3 Everton 3
4 Bournemouth 2
5 Newcastle 1
- Southampton 1
7 Leicester 0
- Chelsea 0
- West Ham 0
- Stoke 0
- West Brom 0
- Man City 0
- Liverpool 0
- Arsenal 0
- Man United 0
- Swansea 0
- Sunderland 0
- Crystal Palace 0
- Tottenham 0
- Norwich 0

So that is 14 games without a win for Palace, in which time they have scored 5 points. Can they make 5 points in their remaining 6 games? That would take Palace to 39 points, probably enough given that Newcastle don't look on for a further 14 points, and Sunderland for 13.

In [6]:
stats = league_analysis.last_x_game_stats(epl, 14)
display(HTML(league_analysis.header_stat_tables(epl, stats=stats)))
Position Team Points
1 Leicester 31
2 Tottenham 30
3 Chelsea 26
- West Ham 26
5 Man United 24
6 Southampton 23
7 Man City 22
- Arsenal 22
9 Stoke 21
- Liverpool 21
11 West Brom 20
12 Swansea 19
13 Bournemouth 18
14 Everton 15
- Sunderland 15
16 Norwich 14
17 Watford 9
18 Aston Villa 8
- Newcastle 8
20 Crystal Palace 5
Position Team Team Rating
1 Tottenham 0.29253400346893266
2 Man City 0.24809006166376757
3 Liverpool 0.14688732219891265
4 Chelsea 0.1418853654567104
5 Leicester 0.0744477573131263
6 Everton 0.059871091235242646
7 West Ham 0.05840532306634284
8 Arsenal 0.04759617202160188
9 Southampton 0.004870414797594438
10 Man United -0.013981854627015941
11 Stoke -0.039190561641789176
12 Sunderland -0.05806587103609884
13 Bournemouth -0.0699860745585143
14 Swansea -0.08553004417628922
15 West Brom -0.10640277940069447
16 Newcastle -0.11720632817241719
17 Norwich -0.13392966391863334
18 Crystal Palace -0.15692677708764663
19 Watford -0.20010039106192953
20 Aston Villa -0.25534156368377914
Position Team PDO
1 Leicester 0.18245614035087718
2 Chelsea 0.1733490566037736
3 West Ham 0.10014443909484833
4 Swansea 0.09206349206349207
5 West Brom 0.07684154742978272
6 Southampton 0.06882753101240496
7 Man City 0.05704941860465118
8 Arsenal 0.041666666666666685
9 Man United 0.038034188034188066
10 Sunderland 0.014419610670511895
11 Norwich -0.015647226173541917
12 Watford -0.020634920634920673
13 Tottenham -0.037297297297297305
14 Bournemouth -0.03954802259887008
15 Everton -0.03968253968253971
16 Liverpool -0.04830257461836407
17 Stoke -0.049346879535558774
18 Crystal Palace -0.16180555555555556
19 Aston Villa -0.24304803178042614
20 Newcastle -0.26259196378041877

Okay I think that's it from me this week. Thanks for reading again.

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